U.S. Employment Performance July 2019

The economy added 164,000 net new jobs in July 2019 (preliminary) short of the expectation of 171,000 new jobs by economists polled by MarketWatch.   Job growth was at 1.51 percent compared to the 40-year compound annual growth rate of 1.43.  The unemployment rate was unchanged from June at 3.7 percent. The following graph shows the …Read more

Residential Lending Forecast 2019 & 2020 as of July 2019

As the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee prepares to meet today, interest rates and where they are likely going are making headlines.  Interest rates make up part of the throttle linkage for residential lending.  Shown in the table is the latest forecast for 30-year conventional mortgage rates as reported by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and …Read more

MSA % Divisions Employment – June 2019

The U.S. just entered the longest economic expansion in history having grown 121 months.   Job growth nationwide was 1.54 percent in the 12 months ending June 2019 compared to a 1.43 percent annual compound rate for the past 40 years.  Job growth is not systemic, however.  As usual, I invoke the TINSTAANREM axiom — There …Read more

Affordability Erosion Grows Continues to Impact Existing Home Sales — Down 2.2 Percent Year-Over-Year, Price Up 4.3 Percent

Existing home sales dropped 2.2 percent in June 2019 compared to a year ago coming in at 5.27 million on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) as reported by the National Association of Realtors® (NAR).  Sales were down 1.7 percent sequentially from May.   Total sales in June (raw, not seasonally adjusted) came in at 527,000, …Read more

Another Top-10 List– States With the Greatest Student Debt

The average annual cost to attend a private nonprofit college averaged $45,510 in the 2018-2019 academic year.  This compared to an inflation-adjusted $24,800 in the 1988-1989 academic year.  After considering inflation, the cost of college has almost doubled in the past 30 years. Free college tuition and forgiveness of college debt is a platform plank …Read more

State Job Growth June 2019

Jobs are everything to the economy.   Period.  Just one state, Louisiana, posted a decline in the total number of jobs year-over-year, down a miniscule 0.07 percent with a loss of 1,300 net jobs.  Nevada grew jobs at a 3.30 percent pace once again topping state job growth at more than double the 1.54 percent nationwide …Read more