Updated December 2012 Residential Lending Forecast

So many of you responded to a blog last week on forecast residential lending forecasts by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), with the updated forecasts today from the MBA and Fannie Mae, attached are the latest tables, charts and the respective forecasts from December 2012.

Since October 2011, the total residential lending forecast by Fannie Mae for U.S. 1 to 4 family residential lending in 2012 has increased by more than 95 percent. Again, as I had stated earlier, do not criticize Fannie Mae for this almost doubling, but rather appreciate how dynamic and rapid market changes are taking place.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The latest lending forecast summary as of December 2012 for 2012, 2013 and 2014 follows.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Since the same dollar amount of refinance lending does not produce as many title premiums as the same dollar amount of purchase lending, I convert the total lending to Effective Lending, which is equal to purchase lending plus 60 percent of refinance lending. The following graph shows the latest forecasts converted into effective lending, in relationship to the U.S. title industry statutory title premiums.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Last, a detailed breakdown of the changes in forecast for 2012 and 2013 from November’s forecast to December, by Fannie, Freddie and the MBA.

Once again it is obvious there is no plagiarism amongst these three forecast sources.

If you have any questions, just email back.

Ted

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