Commercial real estate sales increased more than 30 percent in 2013 when compared to 2014, and are poised to gain again in 2014. But just like residential properties, I invoke the axiom “There Is No Such Thing As A National Real Estate Market,” which I call the TINSTAANREM clause. Some markets are better than average while others are worse.
Coldwell Banker Commercial® analyzed the top 80+ markets in the country, ranking office, retail and multifamily segments based on changes in vacancy and rental rates from Q3 2012 to Q3 2013. In addition, they scored the change in the population of market for the same period, plus the change in unemployment rate from August 2012 to August 2013. Hence they included both real estate market performance measures and indicators of overall economic health.
In addition to the rankings from Coldwell Banker Commercial, I added the latest 12-month change in jobs, percent growth rate of jobs, and the relative ranking among the slightly more than 400 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) and divisions from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — based on job growth percentages.
So where are the hottest commercial markets for 2014 according to Coldwell Banker Commercial® and the job growth metrics?
The relative rankings within each property type are included in the 32 page report, including commentary on the top 10 markets and detailed statistics. In addition there are links to listings in each market. To download the 2013 Blue Book 32 page report from Coldwell Banker Commercial® click http://www.mmparrish.org/web/beau/Top_CRE_Markets.pdf
My forecast is for a 15 percent increase in commercial sales in 2014. While one-half that of 2013, it is still a material increase.
Commercial markets should have a robust 2014.