DrTCJ Tweets May 22 2015 – June 18 2015

For those of you that do not Tweet – you should consider doing so. If you want to talk about effective bang for the buck, the 140 total characters, letters, numbers and spaces of a Tweet on Twitter certainly qualifies. Who knew you could say so much in so little?

It reminds me of Mark Twain who wrote, “I would have written you a shorter letter but I didn’t have the time.” You need to pack a lot in a little space.

Twitter followers on DrTCJ now total 1,107 – please tell friends and colleagues.

This is one of the periodic Jones on Real Estate blog postings covering the latest Tweets.

While you may recognize some of the data from my blog postings, there are always items that just get Tweeted. I am always looking for “I did not know that” information

DrTCJ Tweets May 22 2015 – June 18 2015

  • Inflation is coming with core CPI increasing 1.8% on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate in May 2015 portending interest rate increases
  • Most expensive office market in the world is the London West End, with annual occupancy cost at $264 per square foot – Cushman & Wakefield
  • Global office rents rose 7% in 2014, more than double the 3% annual increase seen since 2010 – Cushman & Wakefield
  • California May 2015 home sales were up 8.9% from a year ago, but down 1.1% sequentially from April 2015 – California Association of Realtors
  • 1st & 2nd mortgage default rates hit record lows in May with just 0.74% & 0.42% late, respectfully, missing their payment – S&P/Experian
  • 1 out of 3 commercial Realtors (32%) were involved in international transactions in 2014 – National Association of Realtors
  • The average commercial Realtor completed 11 transactions in 2014, up from 8 in 2013, with a median price of $2,916,700 – NAR
  • Commercial Realtor median gross annual income was $126,900 in 2014, up 31.9% from $96,200 in 2013 – National Association of Realtors
  • May multifamily residential building permits hit an annualized rate of 557,000 units in buildings with 5 or more units, up 26% from April
  • Residential building permits in April ran at 1.28 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate – the highest since August 2007
  • Residential servicing was $9.9 trillion as of 3-31-15: Wells Fargo $1,718 billion, Chase $924, BofA $669, Nationstar $390 – Mortgage Daily
  • Residential lending market share in Q1 2015: Wells Fargo 15%, Chase 7%, Quicken 6%, BofA 5% & US Bank 4% – Mortgage Daily
  • $334 billion of mortgages closed in Q1 2015: Wells Fargo at $49 billion, Chase $25, Quicken $19 BofA $17 & US Bank $14 – Mortgage Daily
  • Texas had the most homes with positive equity at 97.7% in the US as of the end of Q1 2015 followed by Hawaii at 96.9% – CoreLogic
  • 1 out of every 3 homes with negative equity (31.4%) are in Nevada, Florida, Illinois, Arizona & Rhode Island – CoreLogic
  • Positive equity is now in 94% of homes valued above $200,000 and in 85% of homes worth $200,000 or less as of the end of Q1 2015 – CoreLogic
  • Among all homes with loans, 1.0 million (2.0%) had a loan-to-value ratio of 100 to 105% and 1.9 million (3.8%) LTV was 125%+ – CoreLogic
  • The average loan-to-value ratio of all homes with loans (44.9 million) was 58.8% as of the end of Q1 2015 – CoreLogic
  • 2.7% (1.3 million) of the 44.9 million homes with a loan had less than 5% equity as of the end of Q1 2015 – CoreLogic
  • 19.4% of all homes with mortgage loans had less than 20% equity (referred to as Under Equitied) as of the end of Q1 2015 – CoreLogic
  • The aggregate value of negative equity in homes was $337.4 billion as of the end of Q1 2015, down from $349.1 billion in Q4 2014 – CoreLogic
  • 4 million homeowners owe the bank at least 20% more than their homes are worth – Zillow & TransUnion
  • 1 out of 10 homes with a mortgage (10.2%) were underwater in negative equity at the end of Q1 2015 – CoreLogic
  • Rising property values pushed another 254,000 homes from underwater to positive equity in Q1 2015 – CoreLogic
  • There still are approximately 5.1 million homes underwater with negative equity as of the start of Q2 2015 – CoreLogic
  • The average home down payment in Q1 2015 fell to 16.98% (($44,007), down from 17.59% in Q4 2014 ($47,585) – LendingTree
  • Since the decline in oil prices commenced, the number of US drilling rigs has contracted by 61% from the October 2014 peak – Baker Hughes
  • While homeowners typically overvalue by 8%, those that bought during high appreciation & boom (2004-2006) overvalued by 12% – JHE CUNY
  • Housing sales this year are on track to be the best market seen since the peak of the housing bubble in 2006 – http://Realtor.com
  • With a 1.07% vacancy rate, Manhattan residential rents now average $4,081 per month, an all-time record – Douglas Elliman in WSJ
  • More than 1 in 4 home sellers nationwide sold their home in less than 2 weeks since 2014 – Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC
  • Average zombie foreclosure market value Q2 2015 (homeowner departed prior to foreclosure) was 22% below non-zombie foreclosure – RealtyTrac
  • Home value perceptions between appraisers and homeowners continues to widen with appraisers now 1.15% less than homeowners – Quicken Loans
  • US crude oil production hit a 43-year monthly high in May averaging 9.6 million barrels per day, up from 8.4 million a year ago – EIA
  • Houston existing home sales for May 2015 dropped 4.3% from a year ago, while median price rose 10.5% – Houston Association of Realtors
  • Real GDP in 2014 increased in all but 2 states: Mississippi down 1.2% and Alaska off 1.3% – US Bureau of Economic Analysis
  • Alaska had the greatest real per capita GDP in 2014 at $66,160 versus the US $49,649 – Bureau of Economic Analysis
  • Since the US homeownership peak in Q2 2014 an estimated 7.8 million homes were lost to foreclosure – CoreLogic
  • Since the financial crisis commenced in September 2008, 5.7 million homes + or – have been lost by homeowners to foreclosure – CoreLogic
  • Dodd-Frank & CFPB impact on US banks today: Bankers are most concerned about compliance & regulatory burden – American Bankers Association
  • 90% of typical banks residential loans in 2014 were Qualified Mortgages, showing Dodd-Franks dampening impact – American Bankers Association
  • Small cap (less than $5 million) industrial property rents rose 4.9% in the 12 months ending Q1 2015 – Boxwood Means
  • In the past 3 years, 21% of Americans reported having to get a second job to cover their rent or mortgage payment – MacArthur Foundation
  • 5.1% of all homes with a mortgage in New Jersey were in the foreclosure inventory in April 2015, the most in the US – CoreLogic
  • Just 1.4% of homes with a mortgage were in some form of foreclosure in April 2015 – CoreLogic
  • Approximately 521,000 homes were in some stage of foreclosure In April 2015, down 25% from 694,000 a year ago – CoreLogic
  • Residentially loans seriously delinquent (90 days or more past due) were 3.6% in April 2015, the lowest since February 2008 – CoreLogic
  • US residential foreclosures down 20% from a year ago, at 40,000 in April 2015 – CoreLogic
  • Five states accounted for one-half of US residential foreclosures in April 2015: FL, MI, TX, OH, GA. – CoreLogic
  • Among those not yet retired, 60% responded in a survey they would consider moving on retirement – http://Bankrate.com
  • 62% of homeowners seriously delinquent on their loans (90 days or more past due) already had some home retention services – Black Knight
  • While almost 3/4s of all new households in the 1990s became homeowners, fewer than 1/2 today are projected to do likewise – Urban Institute
  • When surveyed where they desired to reside, 29% of Boomers said it doesn’t matter, just close to family vs just 1% of Millennials – Redfin
  • Just 1 in 5 Millennials (29%) desire a smaller, suburban single family home vs 3 in 10 (30%) of Baby Boomers – Redfin
  • While just 20% of Baby Boomers desire single family homes close to the center of the city, 53% of Millennials prefer such – Redfin
  • Millennials today make up 28% of the U.S. population, but have just 7% of all owner-occupied housing – Fannie Mae reported by HousingWire
  • GenXers today make up 19% of the U.S. population and have 25% of all owner-occupied housing – Fannie Mae reported by HousingWire
  • Baby Boomers today make up 25% of the U.S. population, but have 45% of all owner-occupied housing – Fannie Mae reported by HousingWire
  • Federal and state governments own 4 of every 10 acres in the US (39.8%), feds at 31.3% and states 8.7% – http://propertyrightsresearch.org
  • New Jersey has the most average land value per acre at $196,410, and Wyoming the least at $1,558 for the 48 contiguous states – 24/7 Wall St
  • The estimated value of all land in the US is $23 trillion, with California representing 17% of the total land value – FHFA
  • Perception of housing as an investment prevails with 60% plus of respondents saying yes and 10% saying no- New York Federal Reserve Survey
  • Renters are more optimistic on home price increases in the coming 12 months at 5.2% vs owners at 4.1% – New York Fed Survey in February
  • Jobs in the Leisure and Hospitality sector (a good indicator of consumer confidence) grew by 57,000 jobs in May – one of every five new jobs
  • Mining employment jobs (which includes oil and gas extraction) dropped by 17,000 in May, now down 5 consecutive months – BLS
  • Total job gains for the 12-months ending May 2015 were greater than 3 million for the sixth consecutive month, best period since 1999 – BLS
  • 30-year residential loan rates, though unchanged at 3.87% from the prior week, were at the highest seen in 2015 – Freddie Mac
  • The US added 280,000 net new jobs in May 2015, the largest gain this year. Expectations were for 210,000 – MarketWatch & BLS
  • 6.6 million plus U.S. homes are at risk for hurricane damage with a total reconstruction cost of $1.5 trillion – CoreLogic
  • US housing mortgage debt of $8.17 trillion is 69% of the $11.85 trillion total household debt outstanding – Business Insider
  • Average lender profit per residential loan originated essentially doubled from $744 in Q4 2014 to $1,447 in Q1 2015 – MBA
  • The average home down payment in Q1 2015 fell to 14.8%, the lowest in three years, down from 15.5% a year ago – RealtyTrac
  • 41% of residential lenders responded they were not prepared for the August 1 2015 new lending disclosure and closing rules – Capsilon Corp.
  • Employment increased from March to April in 330 of 387 (85.2%) Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) – Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • The marriage rate among Americans hit an all-time low in 2013 at 50.3% compared to the 1960 marriage rate of 72.2% – Pew Research Center
  • Denver-Aurora-Lakewood Colorado had the most viewings per listing in May 2015 – http://Realtor.com
  • 30% of homeowners aged 65 and up still have a mortgage on their home with an average $88,000 loan balance, up from 22% in 2001 – CFPB
  • The average new home built is the largest in history at 2,657 square feet, up from 2,598 the prior year – Census Bureau
  • US home prices are forecast to increase 5.3% from April 2015 to April 2016 according to CoreLogic – greater than any CD yield
  • US home prices rose 6.8% from April 2014 to April 2015 on average according to the CoreLogic Home Price Index
  • US 2015 hotel Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR) forecast is increased from 6% to 7% by Fitch Ratings, with 7.5% posted thru April
  • Although almost 9 in 10 Californians on the state ObamaCare exchange receive subsidies, 44% report difficulty paying their premiums – EBN
  • US corporate profits fell 5.9% in Q1 2015, the biggest decline since 2008 and down two consecutive quarters – MarketWatch
  • Less than one half of the homeowners flooded in Texas are covered by flood insurance – insurance Council of Texas
  • Inflation-adjusted median household income, up 3% from a year ago, is still down 2.9% from pre-recession December 2007 – Sentier Research
  • Asian commercial real estate investors purchased a record $8,6 billion of foreign real estate in Q1 2015 with $3.3 billion in the US – CBRE
  • The top home seller’s market in the US is Alameda, California where current prices are estimated at 108% of market value – RealtyTrac
  • 30-year residential mortgage rates hit a 2015 high for the week ending May 28 2015 at 3.87% but down from 4.12% a year ago – Freddie Mac
  • Pending home sales of existing homes at the highest level in 9 years in April 2015, up 14% from a year ago and up 3.4% from March – NAR
  • Portland, Oregon was ranked as the most improved housing market in the U.S. In March 2015 – Freddie Mac Multi Indicator Market Index
  • Millennial mothers use their smartphone an average 2.3 hours daily, equal to the number of hours they watch TV – BabyCenter/IAB – #Adweek
  • 8 in 10 Millennial moms surveyed by BabyCenter/IAB use their smartphone while shopping in stores – #Adweek
  • 1 in 4 Millennial mothers surveyed by BabyCenter/IAB do half or more of their shopping online – #Adweek
  • Since April 1971, the median 6-month 30-year residential fixed-rate loan interest rate increase was 45 basis points, and 12-month up 85 bp
  • Am forecasting 30-year residential rates to increase to 5.2% by fall 2016 –http://blog.stewart.com/stewart/2015/05/27/interest-rates-no-place-but-up-installment-2/ …
  • Mortgage delinquency rates in Q1 2015 dropped to 2.95%, the lowest seen since Q3 2007 and considered to be back to normal – TransUnion
  • Almost 80% of all residential loans made in 2014 had some kind of government guarantee – HousingWire
  • Hispanics accounted for 40% of US household growth in 2014 adding 320,000 new households – RISMedia
  • Hispanics will account for 55.5% of all new homeowners from 2010 through 2020 – Urban Institute as reported by RISMedia
  • 82% of new US multifamily rentals built from 2012 – 2014 were luxury properties giving limited new supply in the affordable range – WSJ
  • 1.011 million residential permits issued in the 12 months ending March 2015 and 3.089 million new jobs = 3.05 new jobs per new dwelling unit
  • April new home prices rose 8.3% from a year ago to $297,300 with an estimated 4.8 months inventory, down from 5.1 months in March
  • New home sales in April 2015 up 26% from a year ago and up 6.8% from March to an annual sales rate of 517,000 – US Census Bureau
  • Key United Kingdom city home prices rose 1.4% in the 3 months ending April 2015, highest rate in a decade – Hometrack UK Cities Price Index
  • In the past 20 years the stock market has been up just 45% of the time in June, up just 46% in the last 50 years – Bespoke
  • 42.2% of first-time homebuyers used FHA loans in April 2015, up from 34.2% as of last September – Campbell Survey
  • First-time homebuyers reached a 4-year high in April, making up 37.6% of the market in April 2015 – Campbell Inside Mortgage Finance Survey
  • Colorado had the largest 12-month price increase at 10% as of March 2015, then Texas at 7.7% and New York at 7.4% – Black Knight
  • San Jose California posted a 2.7% price gain in March 2015, the largest in the US according to the Black Knight Home Price Index
  • Colorado and The District of Columbia posted the largest price increase in the US in March 2015 at 1.9% – Black Knight
  • Home prices, up 1.2% in March (largest gain in almost 2 years), are now just 8.4% below the June 2006 peak – Black Knight Home Price Index
  • Assuming the US economy continues on the current trajectory, expect interest rate increases this year – Janet Yellen Federal Reserve Chair
  • Although gasoline is estimated to cost $1 less per gallon Memorial Day this year than last, hotels are up 16% – AAA Leisure Travel Index
  • 88% of travelers (37.2 million +) this Memorial Day weekend will travel by car, paying the least for gasoline in at least 5 years – AAA
  • 37.2 million + Americans will travel more than 50 miles this Memorial Day Weekend, the most in a decade & up 4.7% from last year – AAA
  • Investors bought 14% of all home sales in April 2015 and paid all-cash 71% of the time – NAR
  • All cash transactions occurred in 1 of every 4 April 2015 home sales (24%) vs 32% a year ago – NAR
  • First time homebuyers bought three of every 10 sales in April 2015 (30%) vs 29% a year ago – NAR
  • Distressed sales and foreclosures made up just 1 in 10 closings in April 2015, 7% disclosures & 3% short sales – NAR
  • Non-distressed residences closed in April 2015 were on the market an average 38 days, foreclosures 50 days and short sales 180 days – NAR
  • Almost one half of all properties sold in April 2015 (46%) were on the market less than 30 days – NAR
  • Almost 4 in 10 residences sold in April 2015 closed above the asking price due to tight inventory – NAR
  • The number of residential loans in foreclosure fell to the lowest number since January 2008 – Black Knight
  • April ended at 2.415 million homes 30 or more days past due but not in foreclosure, up 35,000 from March, down 496,000 YOY – Black Knight
  • April foreclosure starts at 73,500 were down 6.73% sequentially from March and off 21.9% year over year – Black Knight

If you have the time to wait, these will be aggregated periodically here on the blog. If however, you wish to receive these real-time as they happen, then follow my account at DrTCJ.

Better yet, get your own Twitter account and Tweet away — and of course re-tweeting the ones of mine you find interesting.

Want to see all of my tweets or follow? Click https://twitter.com/drtcj

If this 61-year old can Tweet, so can you.

Ted

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