DrTCJ’s Tweets April 29, 2016 Through June 23, 2016

For those of you that do not Tweet – you should consider doing so. If you want to talk about effective bang for the buck, the 140 total characters, letters, numbers and spaces of a Tweet on Twitter certainly qualifies. Who knew you could say so much in so little?

More important perhaps, is that Millennials (Social Media Core Users) are not only the largest population cohort ever seen in the U.S., but also as of 2016 the largest home buying segment. Join in or check out.

Tweeting reminds me of Mark Twain, who wrote, “I would have written you a shorter letter but I didn’t have the time.” You need to pack a lot in a little space.

Twitter followers on DrTCJ now total 2,324 – please tell friends and colleagues. This is one of the periodic Jones on Real Estate blog postings covering the latest Tweets.

While you may recognize some of the data from my blog postings, there are always items that just get Tweeted. I am always looking for “I did not know that” information.

I apologize for the length of this blog and will target in the future to do the Tweet’s Blog every two weeks.

DrTCJ’s Tweets April 29, 2016 Through June 23, 2016

  • Each 1,000 newly-built Single Family homes generates 2,975 jobs and $111.0 million in fees & taxes for all levels of government – NAHB
  • Each 1,000 newly-built average apartments generates 1,133 jobs and $42.4 million in fees & taxes for all levels of government – NAHB
  • The number of US hotel rooms under construction (164,869) is up 27.3% year-over-year – STR
  • In 2005, 1 in 4 loan applicants (25%) had a FICO score of 640 or less, buy just 5% of applicants in 2015 – CoreLogic
  • FICO Scores on Loans Closed May 2016 754 Conventional 686 FHA 707 VA 695 Average American FICO Score Ellie Mae
  • Quality new-home lot availability is at an all-time record low with 64% of builders responding Low or Very Low for lot inventory – NAHB
  • 67% of Millennials (18-34) are motivated to improve their credit scores by desire to buy a home, Gen Xers 53%, Boomers 52% – Chase- Slate
  • Millennial-headed households are expected to rise by 2 million households per year for the next 10 years – Harvard Joint Center for Housing
  • Buying the median-priced home in Q2 2016 required an average 35.4% of the average wage in the most populous 417 counties – RealtyTrac
  • 38% of active residential loans in the US have interest rates greater than 4.5% and would benefit from refinancing – CoreLogic
  • US inflation adjusted apartment rents rose by 65% from 1960 to date with rents increasing from $568 to $934, income up 18% – Apartment List
  • US May 2016 commercial property transaction volume fell 36% YOY to $28.6 billion driven by a 56% mega deal drop – Real Capital Analytics
  • Top June Housing Markets Per Online Listing Views and Fastest Moving Inventories 1 Vallejo 2 San Francisco 3 Dallas Realtor Magazine
  • 1st time homebuyers made up just 3 in every 10 closings in May 2016, off from 32% in April and short the 40% level a decade ago – NAR
  • All cash transactions were seen in 1 out of every 5 May 2016 residential closings (22%) – National Association of Realtors
  • Investors accounted for 13% of all homebuyers in May 2016 and paid all cash 63% of the time – NAR
  • May 2016 existing home sale closings were on the market just 32 days — the shortest ever recorded by the National Association of Realtors
  • US Median existing home prices hit an all-time record high of $228,900 in May 2016, up 4.5% from a year ago – NAR

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  • US Median Existing Home Price Up Each and Every Month YTD May 016 National Association of Realtors @nardotrealtor
  • Us Existing Home Sales Up Each and Every Month in 2016 vs 2015 National Association of Realtors

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  • US Existing Home Sales YTD Through May 2016 National Association of Realtors @nardotrealtor

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  • In 2015, median monthly rent averaged $1,381 which requires at least $55,000 in income to afford, yet renters on average earned $34,000
  • Foreclosed residential inventory plunged 29% in May 2016 vs a year ago to the lowest level recorded since summer 2007 – Black Knight
  • 21.3 million American renters pay30% & up of their income to rent, with 11 million in 2014 spending at least 50% – Harvard Joint Center
  • May 2016 existing homes sales were up 4.5% from a year ago, now at 5.53 million SAAR, the most since February 2007 – NAR
  • 8 out of 10 respondents (78%) expect 1st homebuyers to continue at the same level (47%) or increase at least 3% (31%) – Genworth at MBA
  • Why the US cities grew and are growing: in 1900 40% of Americans lived on farms or ranches, today just 2% do – The Economist
  • The top 10% of teachers “impart more than three times as much learning as the worst 10% do” – The Economist
  • Year-to-date California housing sales through May are down 3.8% from a year ago due to lack of lower-priced affordable homes – PropertyRadar
  • Before the housing bubble, distressed sales made up less than 2% of all housing transactions, should sink to that level by 2018 – CoreLogic
  • US GDP, which was 0.5% on an estimated annualized basis in Q1 2016, is forecast to hit 2.8% annualized in Q2 2016 – Atlanta Fed
  • More than 50% of US renters today are classified as Cost-Burdened (paying more than 30% of gross income for rent) up from 24% in 1960 – AP
  • The CFPB this year (fiscal 2016 ending September 30) has budgeted 2.5% of total spending to ads – 2nd most of any government agency – WSJ
  • Talk about inflation, low cost healthcare plans under Obamacare are expected to increase 11% next year – Kaiser Family Foundation
  • Single family rental housing makes up 13% of all occupied housing units and 37% of the total rental market – National Rental Home Council
  • May 2016 retail sales rose 0.5% with total retail sales up 2.5% in the prior 12 months, and if gas is excluded, up 3.7% – MarketWatch
  • Residential foreclosures fell 15.8% in April 2016 vs a year ago, just 1.1% of all homes with a mortgage in foreclosure inventory – CoreLogic
  • US banks received $2.7 billion in overdraft fees in Q1 2016, up 6 percent from a year ago
  • US Consumers surveyed by the New York Fed in May 2016 anticipate home prices to rise 3.2% in the coming year, up from 3.1% a month ago
  • Hottest Housing Markets in 2016 Based on Redfin’s Hot Homes Algorithm Denver, Colorado Seattle, Washington Portland, Oregon HousingWire
  • 2016 1st Time Homebuyers 32% of all transactions $77,500 combined income 31 years old 70% Millennials $170,000 median price 5% down NAR
  • 50% of non-homeowners paying their student debt on time said the debt will delay a home purchase by more than 5 years – NAR & SALT
  • 71% of non-homeowners paying their student debt on time said their debt is hindering purchasing a home – NAR & SALT
  • 1 out of 4 homeowners (76%) 56 and up are confident that they will have a comfortable retirement and 63% want to age in place — Freddie Mac
  • MetLife recommends that retail property landlords turn to dining & entertainment to counter Millennial e-commerce
  • Residential Loan Origination Volumes and Profits Source: MBA http://www.mba.org/performancereport

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  • Average Loan Balance for 1st Mortgage Originations Q1 2016 $237,419 Q1 2015 $238,481 MBA
  • Average Profits Per Loan in Basis Points (bp) 33 bp Q1 2016 22 bp Q4 2015 60 bp Q1 2015 MBA
  • Independent mortgage bankers & bank mortgage subsidiaries report a $825 profit per loan originated in Q1 2016, up from $493 in Q4 2015 – MBA
  • April 2016 US home values were 7.9% below the all-time peak reached in April 2006,including distressed sales – CoreLogic
  • Home Price Change – 12-Months Ending April 2016 – Excludes Distressed Sales

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  • Home Value Price Change – 12 Months Ending April 2016 – Includes Distressed Sales

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  • April 2016 home prices were up 6.2% year-over-year and are forecast to increase 5.3% in the 12-months ending April 2017 – CoreLogic
  • 31% of prospective homebuyers expect to pay less than $150K & 15% less than $100K, but just 6% of new homes were priced below $150K – NAHB
  • Coastal Home Storm Surge Potential Loses $ Billions $535 Florida $184 Louisiana $177 New York $140 New Jersey $91 Texas CoreLogic
  • US coastal homes at risk from storm surge losses totals 6.8 million properties with a total loss exposure of $1.5 trillion – CoreLogic
  • 32% of FICO scoreable Millennials (18-34) have a FICO score less than 600 and 10% have no credit score at all – FICO
  • 33% of Millennial survey respondents (18-34) want to buy a home next year but 43% have a subprime credit score – TransUnion via HousingWire
  • There are now no states where a person can work 40 hours per week at minimum wage and afford a 1-bedroom apartment at average rent – NLIHC
  • Noncurrent Loan Rates 90 Days or More Past Due Q1 2016 2.3% Real Estate 1.2% Credit Cards 1.2% Commercial & Industrial FDIC
  • Home Purchase Mortgage Origination 2014 47% Independent Mortgage Co 40% Bank 7% Affiliated Mortgage Co 6% Credit Union Federal Reserve
  • From 2007 to the trough, US household wealth plummeted $12+ trillion (T) to $55 T, but has since gained back $33 T – Federal Reserve via WSJ
  • 6 out of 10 (61%) of the 1 bedroom apartments in San Francisco rent for $3,000 or more per month, up 6.1% from a year ago – Trulia
  • Location, Location, Location – 330 million people live within a 3 hour drive of the soon to open Shanghai Disney Resort – MarketWatch
  • Baby Boomers control almost 66% of all housing equity in the US, with 40% still planning to buy a home – Freddie Mac vis HousingWire
  • US household net worth rose 1% in Q1 2016, with home values up $498 billion but their stock down $160 billion – Federal Reserve
  • 12.7% of all US homeowners had negative equity in Q1 2016, down from a peak 31.4% in Q1 2012 – Zillow Negative Equity Report via RISMedia
  • Annual Yields Since 2000 12% REITS 7.9% High Yield Bonds 4.1% Large Cap US Stocks JP Morgan Asset Management via Wall Street Journal
  • While more than 20% of Americans moved to a different home in 1948, just 11% did so in 2015 – US Census Bureau via New York Post
  • 1.4 million students tracked leaving for-profit colleges in the 24 months ending Sep 2008, 70% dropped out and earned less than before – WSJ
  • Credit unions increased their residential 1st-mortgage loans outstanding by 10.4% in Q1 2016 on a YOY basis – NCUA
  • Goldman Sachs received 250,000+ MBA & Undergrad applications for entry-level positions for summer 2016, up 40% YOY – Financial Times
  • Houston has 45,000 vacant new class A apartments either finished or in the pipeline, occupancy mid-80% range -Greater Houston Partnership
  • Almost 1 in 4 Households earning $100,000 to $150,000 per year could not come up with an unexpected $2,000 expense in 30 days – Brookings
  • Economist consensus was for 160,000 new jobs in May, but a minuscule 38,000 were created, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.7% – BLS
  • Just 37% of adult Americans have savings to cover a $500 car repair bill or a $1,000 emergency room bill visit – http://Bankrate.com .
  • Saudi Arabia is changing business strategy: in the early 1990s they had more than 25% of global proven oil reserves , 2014 just 15.7% – WSJ
  • Saudi Arabia has 11 Million People Employed 6 Million Non-Saudis 4 Million Saudi Men 1 Million Saudi Women United Nations via WSJ
  • Fed Funds rate was near zero for 7 years, then increased in Dec 2015 to 0.25-0.50%, most Fed officials expect two 0.25% raises in 2016 – WSJ
  • 6.6% of all single family and condo sales in Q1 2016 were flips, up 3% YOY and 20% from the prior quarter – RealtyTrac
  • Q1 2016 industrial vacancy down 10 basis points to 5.6%, lowest since 2002. Absorption was 60.9 million sq ft & new delivery 40.7 – CBRE
  • US median list price zoomed to the highest ever recorded by http://Realtor.com , now $250,000 as of May 2016, up 9% from a year ago
  • Nonfarm payroll employment was up in 327 of the 387 Metropolitan Statistical Areas for the 12 months ending April 2016, down in 54, flat in 6
  • US retail sales jumped up 1.0% in April 2016, the largest gain in almost 7 years, driven by auto & truck sales & higher gas prices
  • Consumer Complaints to the CFPB in April 2016 30.7% Debt Collection 19.2% Credit Reporting 18.2%. Mortgages CFPB via HousingWire
  • US home price increase per S&P Dow Jones Case Shiller Indices was up 5.4% year-over-year as of January 2016 – twice the rate of inflation
  • In addition to using mobile devices for banking, 63% of Millennials use branch banks, as do 68% of Gen X and 69% of Boomers – Wells Fargo
  • Approximately 72% of Millennials (aged 18 to 34) use their mobile devices for banking, as do 50% of Gen X and 19% of Boomers – Wells Fargo
  • US home prices are up 29% from the trough notched in January 2012, and at $257,000 just 3.8% off the June 2006 peak – Black Knight
  • Brownsville-Harlingen, Texas Home Sales — Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/housing-activity/#!/activity/MSA/Brownsville-Harlingen

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  • The California Pending Home sales Index (newly signed contracts) rose 4.1% from a year ago in April 2016, the best increase YTD – CAR
  • California single-family detached home sales dropped 5.4% year-over-year in April 2016, but median price rose 5.1% to $509,100 – CAR
  • Texas Home Sales — April 2016 and Year-to-Date https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/housing-activity/#!/activity/State/Texas … Real Estate Center at Texas A&M

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  • Q1 2016 GDP was revised upwards from preliminary 0.5% to 0.8% vs 1.4% Q4 2015, still the weakest growth since Q1 2015 – Commerce Department
  • U.S. 10-Year Tornado Activity

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  • 2016 US Hurricane and Tropical Storm Forecast

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  • Where Homebuyers (Primary Dwelling) Found The Home Purchased in 2015

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  • One out of every 5 (19%) of residential properties sold in 2015 were to investors, 16% as vacation homes and 65% as a primary dwelling – NAR
  • Vacation home sales, which made up 21% of all transactions in 2014, fell to 16% in 2015, with median price up 6.5% to $210,000 – NAR
  • The typical US family will spend a total $25,826 on healthcare in 2016 including employer paid insurance – Milliman Medical Index, USA Today
  • Most Frequently Visited Stores in the U.S. http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2016/05/15/most-popular-stores-america/84260946/

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  • Limited listings for sale coupled with strong demand bode for a continuation of rising home sales and prices – Ted C. Jones, Stewart Title
  • If you are waiting for the US housing market to recover, it already has – Ted C. Jones, Stewart Title Chief Economist
  • 45% of all existing home sales in April 2016 were on the markets less than one month – NAR
  • One out of every 20 existing home sales in April 2016 were foreclosures (5.0%), and sold at an average 17% discount vs non-distressed – NAR
  • Investors made up 13% of all existing home buyers in April 2016 and paid all-cash in 7 of every 10 purchases (69%) – NAR
  • Buyers paid all-cash in 24% of existing home sales transactions in April 2016, down slightly from 25% in March 2015 – NAR
  • 1st time homebuyers made up 32% of all April 2016 sales, up from 30% a year ago but less the normal 40% a decade ago – NAR
  • Although the inventory of homes available for sale increased by 9.2% in April 2016, number of months of inventory fell from 4.9 to 4.5 – NAR
  • April pending home sales (newly signed contracts) jumped 4.6% year-over-year & up 5.1% from March to the highest level in 10 years – NAR
  • US existing homes sales in April 2016 rose 6.0% year-over-year to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 5.45 million – NAR
  • Top Motivations to Sell a Home from http://Realtor.com

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  • Prior to TRID 77% of residential closings took place as scheduled vs 74% today per an ALTA survey of homebuyers
  • 92% of homebuyers surveyed by ALTA post-TRID reviewed their closing documents prior to closing vs 74% pre-TRID – ALTA
  • Residential rents rose 3.7% in the last 12 months while household gained just 1.4% – US Department of Labor
  • The percent of disposable income being spent on residential mortgage debt is at the lowest level in 35 years – S&P Experian
  • The CPI rose 0.4% in April 2016, the largest monthly gain in 3 years, and is now up 2.1% in the prior 12 months (excluding food and energy)
  • Vacation home median price in 2015 was $192,000 vs $150,000 in 2014. Vacation home sales made up 16% of all transactions in 2015 – NAR
  • US vacation home sales dropped from 1.13 million properties in 2014 to 920,000 in 2015, but still the 2nd most in 10 years – NAR
  • After commencing a 3% tax on 2nd homes & rental homes in the UK at the start of April 2016, sales approvals plunged 19.4% from prior month
  • There were 15,352 dog bite claims on homeowners liability insurance in 2015 at an average cost of $37,214 per incident – State Farm and III
  • Freddie Mac Releases Apartment Index to Guide Investors When to Invest for Individual Major Markets http://www.freddiemac.com/multifamily/aimi/index.html
  • First-time homebuyers accounted for 30% of March 2016 sales at an average $137,000, up 6% from a year ago – FNC National Collateral Database
  • State-run pension funds are more than $1 trillion unfunded as of today with a total $2.5 trillion of assets – Pew Charitable Trusts via WSJ
  • Top-10 states that spent the most on pension fund management fees in 2014 had no better asset return than the bottom 5 states – MPPI, WSJ
  • Seriously delinquent loan rates (90 days or more past due) which hit 9.7% in Q4 2009, dropped to 3.29% in Q1 2016 – MBA
  • Seriously delinquent loan rate (90 days or more past due) fell from 4.25% in Q 1 2015 to 3.29% in Q1 2016 down 95 basis points – MBA
  • Retail sales jumped 1.3% in April 2016, the largest gain in a year. In the past 12 months sales were up just 3.0% in the past 12 months
  • US hotel sector profits jumped 9.4% in 2015 vs 2014 to more than $72 billion with total revenues up 8.0% – STR
  • The number of new unemployment claims rose for the third straight week hitting 294,000, the highest level posted in 14 months
  • 30-year residential fixed-rate loans hit a 3 year low at 3.57% for the week ending May 12, 2016, down from 3.85% a year ago – Freddie Mac
  • NAR is forecasting 5.40 million existing home sales in 2016 making it the best sales year in a decade, up from 5.25 million in 2015
  • The average monthly 1 bedroom apartment rent in San Francisco is 79% of average monthly starting salary and 77% in New York City – RadPad
  • Existing home median prices rose in 154 of the 178 major metro markets (87%) tracked by NAR in Q1 2016 with 16% of markets gaining 10% & up
  • Homeowner Associations (HOAs) and property management companies collect $70 billion annually from 333,000 community associations – CAI
  • Despite global commercial real estate investment falling 14% in Q1 2016 YOY, expect 2016 to repeat 2015 at $650-$700 billion – JLL
  • The decline in homeownership since 2006 saw 6 million would-be-homeowners become renters, 1/3rd renting investor-owned single family – MBA
  • NAHB study finds that 24.3% of the final price of a new home results from government-imposed regulations
  • First-time homebuyers shrinking opportunities as $200,000 or less priced new homes made up just 19% of sales in 2015 vs 38% in 2011 – WSJ
  • Lenders in the Miami MSA have the highest risk in borrower attempts to commit mortgage fraud in the US per CoreLogic – 24/7 Wall Street
  • The average impact fee (local infrastructure cost) in 37 key home builder markets is now an average $21,000 per home – Zelman Assoc via WSJ
  • Impact fees on new home construction in 37 key US home building markets jumped 45% on average since 2005 – Zelman & Associates via WSJ
  • The average regulatory cost per new home (impact fees, codes, drainage etc) hit $84,671 in 2016, up from $65,224 in 2011 – NAHB via WSJ
  • As US crude oil production retracts, oil imports have from 7.3 million barrels per day a year ago to 7.8 million daily now – EIA, USA Today
  • US created just 160,000 net new jobs in April 2016, far short of the 203,000 consensus by economists, 5.0% unemployment rate was unchanged
  • Distressed residential real estate sales, which at the peak in January 2009 hit 32.4% of all closings, are now back to 11.1% – CoreLogic
  • The April 1, 2016 3% sales tax on London homes bought to rent or by foreigners caused luxury high end sales to fall to the lowest since 2009
  • The average cost to originate a loan has risen by 18% in the past two years as regulations and compliance costs explode –MBA
  • Coal fired power plants accounted for 50% of US electricity production in 2009, but has plunged to 33% today – Wall Street Journal
  • Luxury Home Prices (top priced 5% of all quarterly sales) Erode – 1st Time in 4 Years http://www.housingwire.com/articles/36954-luxury-home-prices-decrease-for-first-time-since-2012

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  • April 2016 new car and light-truck sales were up 3.6% vs a year ago at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 17.4 million – Autodata Corp
  • Fastest Growing Public Homebuilders in 2015 83.6% AV Homes 77.8% New Home Company 62.3% UCP 45.6% WCI Communities BUILDER
  • Closed Loan Applications for Millennials Awesome Site — Ted http://elliemae.com/millennial-tracker?utm_campaign=2016Q2DG-Millennial-Tracker-Revised&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Eloqua
  • Best Places to Raise a Family in Small to Medium Sized Cities Rockville MD Chandler AZ Newton MA Holland MI http://Liveability.com
  • Texas – The number of months of inventory for residential listings is now 2.8 months, an all-time low, with 6 months normal – Real Estate Center TAMU
  • Texas home sales rose 7.8% in Q1 2016 vs a year ago, with median price up 5.4% to $195,000 – Texas Association of Realtors
  • US home prices rose 6.7% in the 12 months ending March 2016 and are forecast to rise 5.3% by March 2017 – CoreLogic
  • Facing a short-fall, new construction of hotels in Africa can cost as much as $US350,000 per room – JLL via The Economist
  • Full-time student average tuition jumped 26% in the 10 years ending 2015-2016 at private 4-year colleges – The Economist
  • Full-time student average tuition rocketed up 40% in the 10 years ending 2015-2016 at public, 4-year colleges – The Economist
  • Saudi Arabia government deficit is forecast to run 13.5% of GDP in 2016: borrowing, cutting spending, going into reserves – The Economist
  • India’s economy grew 7.3% in 2015 topping global growth for the 1st time in two decades based on soft data – Wall Street Journal
  • Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac provided 87.4% of the net funds flow into US mortgage markets in 2015 – Rafferty Capital Markets via HousingWire
  • Top Presidential Priorities 44% Health Care Costs 33% Economic Recovery 26% Balance Federal Budget 24% Job Creation Wells Fargo Poll
  • Chinese business travel in 2015 at $291.2 billion topped the US’ $290.2 billion, forecast up 10.1% & 1.9%, respectively in 2016 – GBTA
  • US commercial real estate sales of $2.5 million and up fell 19.8% in Q1 2016 YOY, a trend not expected to continue – Real Capital Analytics
  • Colorado had just 2.1 months inventory of existing homes for sale as of April 1, 2016, with 6 months considered normal – Colorado Realtors
  • California existing home sales rose 5.7% year-to-date (Q1) with median price up 4.0% to $483,280 California Association of Realtors (CAR)
  • Worst Job Losses 12-Months Ending March 2016 by MSAs & Divisions

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  • Best Job Growth by MSAs & Divisions – 12-Months Ending March 2016

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  • 30-year residential interest rates hit the highest level in past four weeks at 3.66% and 15-year rates at 2.89%

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  • Average spending per wedding attendee this year is up 5% to $703, with Millennials spending $893, gift excluded – American Express USA Today
  • Florida condo-townhome sales dropped 6.1% in Q1 2016 vs Q1 2015, but weighted median price was up 6.0% – Florida Realtors
  • Florida existing SFR home sales were essentially flat in Q1 2016 vs Q1 2015 +0.3%, but weighted median price was up 11.4% – Florida Realtors
  • Cost of housing is the biggest factor for Millennials planning a move and a key factor for retirees looking to downsize – RISMedia
  • Top Q1 2016 Institutional Investor Residential Buying Markets — ReatyTrac http://www.realtytrac.com/news/home-prices-and-sales/q1-2016-cash-buyer-institutional-investor-housing-report/

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  • Almost All of the 5.61% Existing Home Sales Gain in Q1 2016 vs Q1 2015 was Single Family, +6.26%

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  • New single family home construction is forecast to rise 14% to 812,000 homes in 2016 and up another 19% to 964,000 homes in 2017 – NAHB
  • US homeownership rate, after increasing in 2nd half of 2015, fell to 63.6% in Q1 2016, the lowest in almost 50 years, & 3rd least in history
  • Hottest Residential Housing Markets in April 2016 based on Views Per Listing vs National Average on -Realtor.com

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Ted

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