DrTCJ’s Tweets January 28, 2017 Through March 9, 2017

If you track my Tweets, ignore this blog.

For those of you that do not Tweet – you should consider doing so. If you want to talk about effective bang for the buck, the 140 total characters, letters, numbers and spaces of a Tweet on Twitter certainly qualifies. Who knew you could say so much in so little?

More important perhaps, is that Millennials — Social Media Core Users — are not only the largest population cohort ever seen in the U.S., but also, as of 2016, the largest home buying segment according to the National Association of Realtors®. Join in or check out, so-to-speak, with this massive economic demographic. One Florida Realtor® that occasionally retweets my info has 800,000+ followers – that is a highly effective use of their time!

Tweeting reminds me of Mark Twain, who wrote, “I would have written you a shorter letter but I didn’t have the time.” You need to pack a lot in a little space.

Twitter followers on DrTCJ now totals 3,525 – please tell friends and colleagues and encourage them to follow.

While you may recognize some of the data from my blog, there are always items that just get Tweeted. I am always looking for “ I did not know that” information.

DrTCJ’s Tweets January 28, 2017 Through March 9, 2017

  • Residential Mortgage Rates Hit 2017 Highs 4.21% 30-Year Fixed 3.42% 15-Year Fixed 3.23% Treasury- Indexed Hybrid ARM 5/1 Freddie Mac
  • Airbnb looking at expanding into long-term rentals including apartment sublets, already does long-term in NYC charging 9-12% fee – Bloomberg
  • Survey by LendEDU of 500 college students: approximately 30% will fund their spring using their student loan vs 20% in Google’s 2016 survey
  • Average prices on single family rental investment homes rose 8.7% to $227,000 in 2016 v 2015 due to rising rental demand – HomeUnion via MBA
  • 2016 Residential Loan Originations

44% Banks
9% Credit Unions
47% Non-Banks

Mortgage Daily

  • Average flipped home 2016 median price of $189,900 with a gross profit of $62,624 (before repair, remodel & transaction costs) – ATTOM
  • Housing Flips 5.7% of all home sales in 2016 vs 5.5% in 2015, but below the 8.2% peak recorded in 2005 ATTOM Data Solutions
  • 193,009 homes were flipped in 2016 (selling twice in a 12-month period), up 3.1% vs 2015 and the most since 2006 – ATTOM Data Solutions
  • Commercial real estate cap rates rose in Q4 2016 in all segments except apartments due to rising interest rates – Real Capital Analytics
  • US oil inventory rose 8.2 million barrels last week to 528 million barrels triggering a 5.3% 1-day decline, biggest 1-day drop in 13 months
  • An estimated 298,000 private sector jobs were added in February 2017 (66,000 in construction), up 16% versus February 2016 – ADP
  • Adjustable-rate mortgage loan application share at 7.4% week ending March 3, 2017 was the most since Oct 2014 (36.6% peak March 2005) – MBA
  • The average loan size for residential purchase applications hit an all-time record $313,300 in the week ending March 3, 2017 – MBA
  • Hotel Construction Pipelines (Rooms)

30,541 NYC
18,373 Houston
17,921 Dallas
14,873 Nashville

Lodging Econometrics

  • Smaller Markets – Better Hotel RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room) in 2016 2.8% growth top 60 markets 3.6% outside top 60 markets CBRE
  • US hotel RevPAR (revenue per available room) increased at 5.7% CAGR in the past 5 years, forecast to grow at 2.2% CAGR to 2021 – CBRE
  • All-Time Record Consumer Housing Confidence from Fannie Mae’s February 2017 Home Purchase Sentiment Index http://www.fanniemae.com/portal/research-insights/surveys/national-housing-survey.html
  • US consumers have never felt more confident about housing than today – Fannie Mae’s Jan 2017 Home Purchase Sentiment Index
  • 78% of Americans surveyed in Fannie Mae’s Jan 2017 Home Purchase Sentiment Index were not concerned about losing their job – most in history
  • US home prices rose 6.9% in the 12 months ending January 2017 & are forecast to gain an added 4.8% in the next 12 months – CoreLogic
  • Typical UK home prices rose 5.1% in the 12 months ending Feb 2017 to £219,949 ($US268,514), down slightly from 5.7% a year ago – PropertyWire
  • Lumber Prices Rocketing Up – Since Jan 1 2017, framing lumber for homes (2×4) jumped 15%, with (2×10) up 20% – NAHB
  • Families with kids in cities spend an average $9,073 more on basic housing & childcare vs the suburbs – Zillow & http://Care.com
  • Non-bank mortgage loan originators made up 26% of all licenses on NMLS system in Q4 2016, an all-time record – Mortgage Daily
  • US trade deficit rose to a 5 year high in January 2017 to $48.5 billion due to strong $US reducing exports & cheaper imports
  • The best time to list a home for sale this year is May 1-15 per Zillow study — sells for 1% more & in 9 days less
  • IRS Audit Rates 2016

0.7% Average
1.7% Earning $200,000+
5.8% Earning $1 million+
0.49% Business

USA Today http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/03/06/your-odds-facing-irs-audit-1–143/98808612/

  • IRS audited 1 of 143 tax filers (in person or by correspondence) in fiscal tax year 2016, (0.7%) the lowest rate since 2003 – USA Today
  • Apartment sales, after a hot January 2016, plunged 63% in January 2017 to a similar volume seen in 2014 – Real Capital Analytics via MFE
  • Estimated Cost to Raise a Child Born in 2015 to 18 Years Old by Household Income Group

$174,690 Low
$233,610 Middle
$372,210 High

USDA

  • Median Home Downpayment 7% Pre-Housing Bubble 3% Bubble Peak (some at zero) 7% Bubble Recovery 6% Today ATTOM Data Solutions via CNBC
  • Use of Home Equity Lines of Credit Loans (HELOCS) are up 21% in the past 2 years, now at the highest level since 2008 – Moody’s via CNBC
  • The current US new home size is an average 2,700 square feet, 57% larger than 40 years ago – HousingWire
  • Factory orders climbed for the 6th out of 7 months in January 2017, up 1.2% for the month – Commerce Department
  • 1 out of 4 (26%) of all Baby Boomers do not intend to retire until the age of 70 – Insured Retirement Institute (IRI)
  • Not even 1/2 (39%) of all Baby Boomers have even attempted to figure out how much savings they need to retire – Insured Retirement Institute
  • Top Rent Increase Q4 2016 Year-Over-Year in 25 Surveyed Markets by RentRage 12.9% McAllen-Edinburg-Mission 10.9% Cape Coral-Ft Myers
  • Where Owners & Renters Live the Shortest Time in Their Dwelling http://Realtor.com

3-13-17 table1

3-13-17 table2

 

  • 15% of homebuyers aged 24-35 are unmarried couples today, up from just 4% in 2005, with 25% of couples purchasing before marriage – Zillow
  • Luxury housing market may have turned the corner – Manhattan saw 108 $4+ million contracts signed in Feb 2017 – up 42% YOY – Mercedes/Berk
  • Percent of People Moving 20% in 1948 12% in 2015 US Census Bureau The typical seller in 2016 had lived in their home 7.88 years
  • Internet Access of Households 31% None 35% Underconnected (such as Smartphone) 34% High-Speed Access Connect-Home HUD Survey
  • Least Expensive States for Car Insurance 2016 Bloomberg BusinessWeek

3-13-17 table3

 

  • Most Expensive States for Car Insurance 2016 Bloomberg BusinessWeek

3-13-17 table4

 

  • Top States for Declines in Union Membership Bloomberg BusinessWeek

3-13-17 table5

 

  • With 6 more states passing Right to Work laws in the past 5 years, just 10.7% of US workers belong to unions, down 47% since 1983 –Bloomberg
  • Shell says the average cost to drill and frack an oil well today is $5.5 million, down 56% from 2013 – Bloomberg
  • The OPEC cartel has lost $2 trillion in revenues & capital investment in oil & gas since the June 2014 downturn – Nigeria Leadership Paper
  • Millennial homebuyers made up 42% of all homebuyers in 2016 with half living in the suburbs, 33% urban & 20% rural – Zillow
  • NAR survey of 3,800 Realtors reports expected 2017 median home price increase of 3.5%
  • 30-year residential fixed loan interest rates dipped to 4.10% for week ending March 1, 2017, down from 4.16% the prior week – Freddie Mac
  • 81% of respondents to a survey by the Community Associations was that poor workmanship in condos was their primary complaint
  • Number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits fell by 19,000 to 223,000 for the last week of February, lowest since the recession
  • 20% of recent homebuyers in NerdWallet’s survey wished they had saved more for downpayment & 14% wishing they had shopped more for a loan
  • Number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits fell by 19,000 to 223,000 for the last week of February, lowest since the recession
  • The typical American homeowner paid $2,149 property tax last year / New Jersey having the greatest percentage tax rate at 2.35% – WalletHub
  • 3rd biggest concern of US home builders in the latest NAHB survey was impact fees, hook-up fees, inspection fees and other governmental fees
  • 2nd biggest concern of US home builders in the latest NAHB survey was the cost & availability of new residential lots at 67%
  • 82% of US home builders responded that their top concern was availability & cost of labor – NAHB Builder Survey
  • In 2011 50% of all new residential loans originated from the 3 largest banks in the US – but just 21% in September 2016 – Washington Post
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average shot up 300 points today to close at more than 21,000 for the 1st time in history
  • The Labor Dept is delaying the rules for new rules for Financial Advisers from April 10th to June 9th allowing more consumer comments
  • Online transaction & auction firm Ten-X forecasting February 2017 housing sales up 7% year-over-year but down 3% from January 2017
  • Q4 2017 GDP unchanged at an estimated 1.9% despite an estimated 3.0% increase in consumer purchases – Commerce Department
  • NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index (newly signed contracts) was up just 0.4 percent in January 2017 vs a year ago & down 2.8% vs December 2016
  • Dividend Capital’s Dr Glenn Mueller’s Q4 2016 Commercial Real Estate Report http://mediacenter.merrillcorp.com/interface/viewer.asp?LocationID=7039099&ClientID=35&Purpose=HUMAN_VIEW&Caller=RETRIEVE_FILE
  • Corporate income taxes are 9+ percent in six states plus the District of Columbia: AK, CT, Iowa, MN, NJ and PA – The Tax Foundation
  • FitchRatings believes that Texas housing prices are overpriced by 10% to 14%, with Idaho homes most overpriced at 15% to 19%
  • Ongoing, the words “Department Store” are alarming words for real estate investors: JC Penney to close up to 140 stores
  • Residential listings are down 7%+ YOY with Orlando down 19%, Cleveland & Minneapolis off 18% & Seattle 17% – http://Realtor.com
  • While overall retail sales increased 4.1% from 2015 to 2016, e-commerce grew by 14.3% – CBRE
  • E-commerce made up 8.3% of all retail sales in Q4 2016 and increased 4.0% year-over-year combined in November & December – CBRE
  • 30 year fixed-rate residential interest rates averaged 4.16% for the past week vs 4.15% prior week, 5-year fixed ARM 3.17% – Freddie Mac
  • The US made up 53.2% of the value of the global stock market December 31, 2016 vs 15% on the same date in 1899 – Credit Suisse
  • 38% of all January existing home sales were on the market less than 1 month, with non-distressed sales at an average 49 days – NAR
  • Investors bought 15% of all January 2017 home sales and paid all-cash 59% percent of the time – NAR
  • 23% of all home sales in January 2017 were all-cash transactions, down from 26% a year ago but up from 21% in December 2016 – NAR
  • Short sales made up 2 of every 100 sales (2%) in January 2017, selling at an average 10% discount to non-distressed properties – NAR
  • Foreclosures made up 1 of every 20 sales (5%) in January 2017, selling at an average 14% discount to non-distressed properties – NAR
  • Inventory of existing homes available for sale is now the lowest seen since prior to 2009 at 4.0 months on a seasonally adjusted basis – NAR
  • The number of available home listings in January 2017 fell 7.1% from a year ago, now with just 4 months of inventory (6 months normal) – NAR
  • January 2017 median home price at $228,900 was up 7.1% from year ago, making 59 consecutive months of a year-over-year increase – NAR
  • January 2017 existing home sales rose from 302,000 a year ago to 320,000 (not annualized, raw monthly data), a gain of 5.96% – NAR
  • Existing home sales jumped up 3.8% year-over-year in January 2017 to 5.69 million SAAR, most since February 2007 – NAR
  • Texas existing home sales in 2016 were an all-time record, up 4.6% from 2015 with median price up 7.7% to $210,000 – Texas Assn of Realtors
  • CBRE estimates that required logistics space to serve rising e-commerce sales is 1.25 million sq ft of space per $1 billion of online sales
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a slight gain (Feb 22, 2017), resulting in the longest-running record-setting streak in 30 years
  • How Much You Need to Save for Retirement — by Age Levels Per CNBC

By the age of 30, your Annual Salary

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/22/heres-how-much-money-you-should-have-saved-at-every-age.html?__source=newsletter%7Cmakeitweekly

  • Shrinking Residential Refinance Market Forecast Fannie Mae February 2017 Forecast

3-13-17-table6

 

  • The average calendar year return for the S&P500 since 1945 has been 24% when the S&P rose in both January & February – CFRA
  • California existing homes sales were up 2.1% in January 2017 vs a year ago, with median price down 3.8% to $489,580 – CAR
  • Homeowners in the years 1985-2000 spent an average 21.0% of household income on mortgages, but just 15.8% in Q4 2016 – Zillow via RISMedia
  • Americans renting in the years 1985-2000 spent an average 25.8% of Household income on rent, it was 29.2% in Q4 2016 – Zillow via RISMedia
  • 2015 legislation: IRS to share info with State Dept, people with $50,000 & up tax debt could be denied or have passport revoked – USA Today
  • 2016 typical homebuyer with a mortgage spent approximately 16% of median household income for housing, most since 2010 – Zillow via RISMedia
  • Rising home values & interest rates inflated the average monthly mortgage payment in 2016 by $68 to $758 – Zillow via RISMedia
  • While the implementation of TRID rules were costly & complex in 2015, that may pale given the pending 900 page servicing rules from the CFPB
  • Townhouse construction starts totaled 97,000 units in 2016, up 12% vs 2015 &. Made up 12.4% of all single family starts in Q4 2016 – NAHB
  • 35% of recent homebuyers reported closing costs & fees exceeded the original TRID estimate vs 31% with costs as expected – ClosingCorp
  • After rising an average 6.75% per year 2010-2015, up 8% in 2016 due to low rates, Germany’s housing may be up to 30% overvalued – Bundesbank
  • 58% of recent homebuyers reported initial estimate on closing costs changed citing: closing costs, insurance costs & taxes – ClosingCorp
  • 17.3 million SFR homes & condos worth $4.9 trillion are in ZIP Codes ranking HIGH or VERY HIGH for 1 to 4 environmental hazards – ATTOM
  • 30-year fixed-rate residential mortgage rates averaged 4.15% vs 3.65% a year ago for the week ending Feb 16, 2017 – Freddie Mac
  • 94% of new jobs resulting from alternative careers, freelancing, small office/home office & the gig economy – Princeton & Harvard Economists
  • Top Job Growth Markets 12 Months Ending December 2016

3-13-17 table7

 

  • The average down payment on a residential purchase loan was 11% in 2016, and just less than 8% for those under 35 years of age – NAR
  • Patents Issued by State http://howmuch.net

3-13-17 table8

3-13-17 table9

 

3-13-17 table10

 

  • The core CPI (excludes food and energy) rose to 3.8% in January 2017 on a seasonally adjusted basis up from 2.7% in December 2016 – BLS
  • Inflation surged in January 2017 with the CPI jumping to 6.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis up from 3.1% in December 2016 – BLS
  • Residential property values in Ireland rose 8.1% in 2016, with an average price paid by householders at €240,937 ($US255,282) – PropertyWire
  • New Zealand median home price jumped up 9.4% in January 2017 vs a year ago to a record $490,000 – Real Estate Institute of New Zealand
  • The refinance share of residential loan applications fell to 46.9% week ending February 10, 2017, the lowest level since June 2009 – MBA
  • With 434,000 new renter households formed in 2016, SFR rental vacancy rate fell 20 basis points in December 2016 to 5.1% – Morningstar
  • 20% of Late Boomers, Millennials aged 25-35 moved last year vs 26% of Gen Xers at that age, vs 27% of Late Boomers in 1990 – Pew Research Center
  • Restrictive lending conditions saw more than 1 million potential borrowers on housing in 2015 not purchase a home – Urban Institute
  • 19.4% of non-owner occupied properties were underwater at the end of 2016 vs 6.8% of owner-occupied – ATTOM Data Solutions
  • Greatest Percent of Seriously Underwater Homes

    19.5% Nevada
    16.6% Illinois
    16.3% Ohio
    14.6% Missouri
    14.5% Louisiana

ATTOM Data Solutions

  • Greatest Percent of Equity Rich Homes

    37.7% Hawaii
    36.9% Vermont
    36.0% California
    34.9% New York
    32.0% Oregon

    ATTOM Data Solutions

  • 13.877 million equity rich properties (loan is less than 1/2 the property value) at the end of 2016, up 1.3 million in the year – ATTOM
  • 2016 home sellers had an average 7.88 years tenure, a record, versus just 4.26 years from 2000 to 2008 – ATTOM Data Solutions
  • End of 2016 saw 5.4 million properties seriously under water (loan secured by the property at least 25% more than property value) – ATTOM
  • The number of seriously underwater properties fell by 1 million in 2016, now down by 7.1 million from the peak 2012 – ATTOM Data Solutions
  • Lowest Foreclosure Inventory – Homes With Loans

    0.2% Colorado
    0.3% Arizona
    0.3% California
    0.3% Minnesota
    0.3% Utah

    CoreLogic

  • Highest Foreclosure Inventory – Homes With Loans

2.8% New Jersey
2.7% New York
1.8% Maine
1.7% Hawaii
1.6% D.C.

CoreLogic

  • Greatest Number of Foreclosures in 2016

    45,000 Florida
    30,000 Michigan
    24,000 Texas
    21,000 Ohio
    19,000 California

    CoreLogic

  • Fewest Number of Foreclosures in 2016

    182 North Dakota
    254 D.C.
    312 West Virginia
    630 Montana
    668 Arkansas

    CoreLogic

  • An estimated 329,000 homes in the US were in some stage of foreclosure in Dec 2016 vs 467,000 a year ago, down 29.5% – CoreLogic
  • The December 2016 residential foreclosure rate was just 0.8% of all homes with loans, the lowest seen since June 2007 – CoreLogic
  • Serious delinquent loans (90 days or more past due) were at 2.6% in Dec 2016, the lowest seen since June 2007 – CoreLogic
  • 21,000 completed foreclosures from in Dec 2016, down 41.7% vs a year ago at 36,000 – CoreLogic
  • Percent of Workers Working from Home at Least 1 Day Per Week

    7.0% 1997
    7.8% 2005
    9.5% 2010
    24% 2015 (part of daily work)

    BLS Via NAHB

  • Timeframe for breaking even on buying a home versus renting was 1 year 11 months in Q4 2016, 3 weeks longer than 1 year ago – Zillow
  • 112+ million US households reported an average $62,116 of taxable income in 2014, latest year of data available – Motley Fool via USA Today
  • 89% of US metro housing markets saw home prices increase in Q4 2016, with 17% rising double digits – NAR
  • More than one-half of US housing markets were at an all-time median home price peak at the end of 2016 – NAR
  • Average American retiree spends $6,852 per year ($571 monthly) on transportation, while owning a car costs $8,700 annually (AAA) – USA Today
  • Average American retiree spends $15,528 annually on housing, or $1,294 per month, plus 1 – 4% of Home value on annual upkeep – Motley Fool
  • China was the largest foreign investor in US real estate in 2016 at $15.9 billion at approximately 25% of total foreign investment – CBRE
  • Since 2012, 7.1 million homes that were underwater at the low point (loan amount more than value) are now above water – ATTOM Data Solutions
  • UK home prices, after increasing 4.4% in 2016, are forecast to rise 3.5% in 2017 – Lancaster University Management School via PropertyWire
  • 89 of the 201 metros (44%) having at least 200,000 people ended 2016 with all-time record home prices – ATTOM Data Solutions
  • Absorption of US office space totaled 38.5 million square feet in 2016, down 13% from 44.5 million in 2015 – Reis via WSJ
  • Respondents reporting “significantly higher income” in 2016 to Fannie Mae’s monthly survey rose from 10% to 15%, bidding well for 2017
  • 2016 US trade deficit at $502.3 billion was the highest in 4 years (since 2012) with Mexico’s share $63.2 billion, up 4.2%, a 5 year high
  • US home prices jumped 7.2% year-over-year in December 2016 and are forecast to rise 4.7% in the 12 months ending December 2017 – CoreLogic
  • By 2035 1 in 5 People in the US will be 65 or older & 1 in 3 households will be headed by someone in that age group – Harvard
  • Most Affordable Home Markets for Single Women Monthly Payment as % of Income 4% Detroit 10% Wichita 10% Indianapolis 12% Tulsa Rent Café
  • Retracting commercial real estate sales in the U.K. Arising from BREXIT saw JLL’s UK capital markets revenues drop 13% in 2016
  • 16% of CEOs plan to increase hiring due to robotics, 58% of CEOs intend to cut jobs in the next 5 years due to robotics – PWC via USA Today
  • 49% of worker activities can be turned over to a machine or robot driven by artificial intelligence – McKinsey via USA Today
  • More than 6% of all home sales in 2016 were flips (selling twice within 12 months), the greatest percentage in a decade – Trulia
  • The US homeownership rate dropped from 63.7% in 2015 to 63.4% in 2016 – US Census Bureau via @HousingWire
  • Hispanics were the only segment to increase their homeownership rate in 2016, rising from 45.6% in 2015 to 46.0% in 2016 – Census Bureau
  • The US added 227,000 net new jobs in January, the most in the prior three months – BLS
  • The typical American household paid $2,127 in property taxes in 2015, Hawaii the lowest tax rate at 0.27% & NJ tops at 2.29% – WalletHub
  • The average time to complete a typical high-rise apartment increased from 17.5 months in 2013 to 24 months in 2016 – MPF Research
  • Since the downturn, the US has added 3.6 million office jobs with a net absorption of just 47 square feet per new worker – MBA
  • Quickening pace of multifamily construction sees Freddie Mac forecast 2017 apartment vacancy rates above 5% for 1st time since 2011
  • December 2016 existing home pending sales index (newly signed contracts) rose a minuscule 0.3% year-over-year – NAR
  • Millennial Top Values for Housing 30% Location 19% Price 11% Outdoor Space 9% Walkability 8% Design Meyers Research Millennial Survey
  • An estimated 563,000 new homes sold in 2016 (newly-signed sales contracts), up 12.2% from a year ago – US Census Bureau
  • Average daily wages in Mexico have risen by just 18% since 2000 to $US16.70 as large numbers entered the workforce – WSJ
  • The median new home sales price sold in 2016 was $322,500, up 11.6% from 2015 ($288,900) – Census Bureau via WSJ
  • While the number of manufacturing jobs rose by 236,000 in 2016, the number of unionized workers in the sector dropped by 74,000 – WSJ
  • In 2015 the US trade deficit was primarily China (48%), EU 20% & Japan 9%, with Mexico just 8% & Canada 2% – US Census Bureau via WSJ
  • Just 20.7% of US workers were union members in 2016, down from 11.1% in 2015 & more than 20% in the early 1980s – WSJ
  • US economy (GDP) grew at just 1.9% on an annualized rate in Q4 2016 based on the 1st estimate
  • New home sales (newly signed contracts) fell 10.4% in December 2016 vs a year earlier – US Census Bureau

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If this 62-year old can Tweet, so can you.

Ted

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