Jobs are everything to an economy. Period. Wherever jobs go, so goes the demand for real estate – both housing and commercial.
Some states consistently produce stronger job growth, while others are reliably weak over time – with many in between. Once again I invoke the invoke the TINSTAANREM axiom — There Is No Such Thing As A National Real Estate Market. Even within states, there are diverse differences in economic activity levels.
What states are best and worst right now in job growth rates — including the District of Columbia? The latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the top percentage increase in jobs as the following 10 states for the 12-months ending March 2017. With the U.S. job growth rate for the same period 1.52 percent, Utah, Georgia, Nevada, Florida and Washington are increasing jobs at or close to double the national rate. Not in the top-10 table is Texas, which rose from 16th best in February 2017 to 11th best as of March.
For every winner there is a loser. The following table shows the 10-states with the worst performing job growth, of which six posted a net-job loss in the latest 12 months. Each of the states with a decline in employment has been impacted by the decline in energy costs, and in the case of coal, Wyoming and West Virginia, regulatory challenges.
From a net number of new jobs created perspective, the list changes somewhat. The next table shows the top gains in the total number of net new jobs created in the 12-months ending March 2017. In addition to the total number of jobs, also included are the respective state’s share of the number of net new jobs created and also the percentage each state has of the total number of jobs in the U.S. Two-thirds of all newly-created jobs in the prior 12 months (64.1 percent) were generated by the top-10 states which have just 49.2 percent of the total number of jobs in the country.
The big winners after consider size and job performance? To me the top performers were those states that produced net new jobs at a pace far in excess of their total number of jobs. The last column in the next table shows the ratio of the Percent of Total Jobs Created by the Respective State in the past 12-months divided by the Percentage of Total U.S. Jobs in that State. Utah, for example, made up 1.00 percent of the total number of jobs in the U.S. as of March 31, 2017, but was responsible for 2.00 percent of all the net-new jobs created in the U.S. in the 12-months ending March 2017. To make this list, the ratio had to be greater than 150 percent.
Click here to download a summary sheet showing all of these metrics for the 50 states plus the District of Columbia. Cheap energy continues to take a toll on some states, while at the same benefitting others. TINSTAANREM or economy.
Jobs are everything. Period.