New Home Sales Reap Double-Digit Gains in March 2017 — Up 15.6 Percent Vs March 2016, Median Price Up 9.4 Percent

New home sales increased 15.6 percent on a year-over-year basis in March 2017, now at an estimated 621,00 unit sales pace on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR).  Median new-home price was $315,100, up 9.4 percent vs the same month a year ago while average price tallied $388,200, a 9.0 percent increase.

 

Be aware that new home sales are counted differently than existing home transactions.  An existing home sale is counted when the property actually closes and ownership transfers.   New home sales are counted when the contract is signed.  In some extreme circumstances for a counted new home sale, construction may not have yet commenced and that specific transaction may not close.  As a result, new home sales often have material revisions from one month to the next.

 

The following graph shows new home sales on a SAAR and monthly median price since January 2007.

new blog 1

 

The growth of the median price since 2014 is a function of both rising values and also the dearth of lower-amenity, smaller entry-level new housing construction.    Again,  repeated from last year:

Since the housing bubble implosion, builders continue to face three headwinds: 

  • limited supply of new lots, with higher prices resulting in more upscale, larger, higher-amenity new-home construction
  • loss of a majority of the skilled-construction workforce as new home sales peaked at 1.424 million in October 2005 and plunged to just 278,000 by August 2010 – a decline of more than 80 percent
  • massive increase in construction costs – labor and materials

 

As a result, the ratio between new and existing home median prices continues to diverge at an increasing rate.  From 2001 through 2006, the average new home median price was 10.9 percent greater than corresponding existing home price.   Since 2014, new home median prices have averaged 32.2 percent greater than existing homes.

New and existing home median prices are shown in the following graph commencing in 2001, prior to the start of the housing bubble.

new blog 2

 

Fannie Mae’s April 2017 forecast expects a 9.2 percent increase in new home sales from 2016 to 2017 and an 11.2 percent gain from 2017 to 2018.  The Mortgage Bankers Association April 2017  forecast shows new home sales rising an additional 11.8 percent in 2017 and 11.0 percent in 2018.

 

To read the entire Census Bureau news release on new home sales click https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

 

New home supply is still falling far short of demand as the household formation rate hovers in the 1 to1.2 million range.  As result, both prices and rents continue to escalate in most markets.

 

Ted

 

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