DrTCJ’s Tweets April 19, 2017 – June 8, 2017

If you track my Tweets, ignore this blog.

For those of you that do not Tweet – you should consider doing so. If you want to talk about effective bang for the buck, the 140 total characters, letters, numbers and spaces of a Tweet on Twitter certainly qualifies. Who knew you could say so much in so little?

More important perhaps, is that Millennials — Social Media Core Users — are not only the largest population cohort ever seen in the U.S., but also, as of 2016, the largest home buying segment according to the National Association of Realtors®.  Join in or check out, so-to-speak, with this massive economic demographic.  One Florida Realtor® that occasionally retweets my info has 800,000+ followers – that is a highly effective use of their time!

Tweeting reminds me of Mark Twain, who wrote, “I would have written you a shorter letter but I didn’t have the time.” You need to pack a lot in a little space.

Twitter followers on DrTCJ now totals 3,873 – please tell friends and colleagues and encourage them to follow.

While you may recognize some of the data from my blog, there are always items that just get Tweeted. I am always looking for “I did not know that” information.

DrTCJ’s Tweets April 19, 2017 Through June 8, 2017

  • Almost 9 million homeowners have returned to positive equity since 2011, 91,000 in Q1 2017 with 3.1 million still underwater – CoreLogic
  • Number of Flips Per Flipper in Q1 2017

69% did just one flip in the quarter

20% 2 to 9 flips

11% 10 or more flips

ATTOM Data Solutions

  • Metro Home Flips as a Percent of All Sales Q1 2017

15.1% Memphis

12.5% York-Hanover PA

11.1% Fresno

10.3% Birmingham

ATTOM Data Solutions

  • Home Flips as a Percent of All Sales Q1 2017

10.7% D.C.

9.8% Nevada

9.0% Alabama

8.9% Tennessee

8.5% Maryland

ATTOM Data Solutions

  • An estimated $3.5 billion in loans were made for home flipping in Q1 2017, a 9-year high as 43,615 SFRs & condos were flipped – ATTOM Data
  • An average 1.5 million 1st-time buyers each year in the past decade vs an historical 1.8 million trimmed sales 300,000 annually – Genworth
  • US oil production is on track to reach 10 million barrels per day in 2018 topping the record 9.6 million barrels per day seen in 1970 – EIA
  • The number of US job openings hit an all-time record 6.04 million positions in April 2017 as firms struggle to find workers – WSJ
  • Net gain per residential loan originated in Q1 2017 of $224 was less than 1/2 the $575 seen in Q4 2016 as total lending dropped 55.9% – MBA
  • Denver average home price increased 9.83% YOY in May 2017 with just 41% of listings under $500,000 (accounting for 74% of sales) – Forbes
  • Denver high-end housing market hot with 179 homes sold in May 2017 for more than $1 million, up 21% vs April & 38% YOY – Forbes
  • Top MSAs to Invest in Rental Properties 2017

1 Detroit

2 Cleveland

3 Milwaukee

4 Youngstown

5 Rochester

RentRange

  • Germany approved 807 megawatt onshore wind farm requiring 5.71€ cents per kilowatt subsidy vs total average US retail price of 11€cents kWh
  • Two states saw home prices rise double digits in the 12-months ending April 2017

12.0% Washington

19.1% Utah

CoreLogic

  • US home prices rose 6.9% in the 12-months ending April 2017 & are forecast to rise 5.1% in the 12-months ending April 2018 – CoreLogic
  • Millennial Apartment Renters

44% have zero saved downpayment

40% do not even have a savings plan for a downpayment

ApartmentList

  • Millennial Apartment Renters

80% want to be homeowners

72% held back by affordability

68% have less than $1,000 downpayment

ApartmentList

  • Safest States in America 2017

1 Vermont

2 Maine

3 Massachusetts

4 Minnesota

5 New Hampshire

6 Washington

7 Connecticut

WalletHub

  • Best Cities for Middle Class Americans to Buy a Home

1 Bismarck ND

2 Billings MT

3 Sioux Falls SD

4 Santa Fe NM

5 Boise ID

SmartAsset

  • Overall hotel occupancy rates are down 0.7% in Q2 2017 YOY to a 67.5% occupancy rate, ADR up 2.4% to $126, RevPAR +1.7% to $85 – STR
  • Hotel average daily rates (ADR) for business travel rose 0.9% in Q2 2017, but occupancy fell 3.5% – TravelClick
  • Changes in credit scores will see 1 to 2 million American’s scores increase 20-39 points & 300,000 rise 60 or more – Washington Post
  • Percent of Households Aged 65-74 With a Home Mortgage

18.5% 1992

32% 2004

42% 2013

Federal Reserve Via HousingWire

  • May 2017 existing home sales are forecast to have declined 1.2% vs April and 0.54% from a year ago – Residential Nowcast from Ten-X
  • April 2017 existing pending home sales (newly signed contracts) fell 3.3% YOY and down 1.3% from March 2017 – LACK of INVENTORY- NAR
  • 9 million homes are at risk of hurricane damage on Atlantic & Gulf Coasts, a potential $1.5 trillion in reconstruction costs – CoreLogic
  • As the US economy grows so does the demand for steel, with metallurgical coal prices (to make steel) up 150% year-over-year – WSJ
  • In the 50 largest metropolitan markets across the US, 79% of the population lives in surrounding suburbs – Urban Land Institute 2016 via WSJ
  • Non-citizen homeownership rate in the US was 39.3% in 2013 per US Census vs 69.7% nationwide – US Census Bureau
  • US companies have added $7.8 Trillion in debt since 2010, with their repayment ability at the lowest potential since 2008 – Financial Times
  • In the next 5 years, 6 million Americans will have their bankruptcies disappear from their credit records fueling home buying – WSJ
  • 5 largest US banks residential loan servicing portfolios shrinks to less than $3.4 trillion today vs $3.7 trillion end of Q1 2017 – Forbes
  • Online travel agencies booked $99 billion of world-wide hotel reservations in 2016, collecting 10% to 30% commissions from hotels – WSJ
  • 1st time homebuyers accounted for 34% of all existing home sales in April 2017, up from 32% a year ago, with 40% normal a decade ago – NAR
  • Investors acquired 15% of all April 2017 existing home sales vs 13% a year ago, paying all-cash 57% of the time – NAR
  • Existing home sale foreclosures sold at an average 18% discount rate vs non-distressed with short sales 12% discounted in April 2017 – NAR
  • Just 5% of April 2017 existing home sales were distressed properties: 3% foreclosures & 2% short sales, down from a total 7% year ago – NAR
  • 52% of April 2017 existing home sales were on the market less than 1 month, with non-distressed properties a minuscule median 28 days – NAR
  • Existing home sales in April 2017 were on the market a median 29 days, the shortest period since NAR started collecting this metric May 2011
  • Median existing home price rose 6% YOY to $244,800 in April 2017, now having increased YOY for 62 consecutive months – NAR
  • There was just 4.2 months of inventory of active existing home listings at the end of April 2017 with 6 months considered normal – NAR
  • 483 million total existing housing sales in the 12 months ending April 2017 vs 5.504 million a year ago, down just 0.38% – NAR
  • April 2017 existing home sales up 1.6% YOY but down 2.3% sequentially from March as number of active listings fell 9% from a year ago – NAR
  • Venezuela’s economy has shrunk 27% since 2013 with inflation projected to be 720% in 2017 per the IMF due to massive federal debt – WSJ
  • Value of $1 Invested in 1802 by End of 2012 – Net of Inflation

$706,199 Stocks

$212 Bonds

$4.50 Gold

Professor Jeremy Siegel

  • Motley Fool’s 3 Ways to Lose All Your Money in the Stock Market
  1. Day Trading
  2. Playing Penny Stocks
  3. Using Margin (debt)
  • US certified pre-owned car sales increased by 61% from 2010 to 2.6 million contrasted to 17.6 million new car sales in 2016 – Cox Automotive
  • When buying a used car, certified pre-owned vehicles cost 6% to 8% more but typically come with extended warranties & other services – AP
  • Average Annual Expense Ratio – Administrative & Operating Costs Deducted from Gain

2.27% Variable Annuities

0.63% Mutual Funds
Morningstar

  • 5 million autos will come off lease in 2017, up from 3 million in 2016, with used car prices down 7% YOY in March 2017 – Associated Press
  • Where Foreigners are Buying Real Estate

22% Florida

15% California

10% Texas

4% Arizona

4% New York

NAR 2016 International Survey

  • Among the 321.4 million Americans

278.1 million were born here

20.7 million naturalized citizens

22.6 million non-citizens

Cato Institute

  • US total rural population, the net combination of births, deaths & net migration, has declined now for 5 consecutive years – WSJ
  • AAA projects a 12-year high number of Memorial Day travelers, with 39.3 million taking to the road for more than 50 miles, up 2.7% YOY
  • UK residential property values forecast to rise 6.1% in the next 5 years by 2021 to almost £300,000, $US383,500 – Barclays via PropertyWire
  • Winning Over Millennial Homebuyers

1 Improve Your Online Presence

2 Share Your Knowledge

3 Optimize for Mobile

RISMedia

  • Super Bowl spending in the nine days in Houston was an estimated $338 million (net of normal tourism) – Houston Chronicle
  • Q1 2017 US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth was revised upwards to 1.2% annualized vs a preliminary 0.7% estimate issued in April 2017
  • Lowered than expected interest rates see a forecast refi lending volume rise to $579 billion in 2017 from $417 billion – Freddie Mac
  • 360,00 federally subsidized low-income housing units were converted to market-rate housing since 1995, with 10,000 to 15,000 more each year
  • For every new affordable housing unit built, 2 units are lost due to deterioration, abandonment or conversion – National Housing Trust
  • 1/3rd+ of US households are renters (44 million) of which almost 60% are low or very low income (31 to 80% of median income) – Fannie Mae
  • Toronto 12-Month Median Home Price Change

33% March 2017

25% April 2017

17% May 2017 – thru May 14 2017

Bloomberg

  • Toronto housing market saw the number of new listings rocket up 47% in the 1st 2 weeks of May 2017 with sales dropping 16% – Bloomberg
  • San Francisco median home prices dropped 4% in April 2017 vs a year ago with the number of transactions off 12% – CoreLogic
  • 1% down residential loans now being offered by Guild Mortgage, Quicken Loans, United Wholesale Mortgage & Guaranteed Rate – MBA
  • New York City Q1 2017 commercial real estate sales plunged 58% year-over-year to $4.3 billion, lowest in 6 years – Cushman & Wakefield
  • Millennial Home Location Preference

39% single family

28% near the suburbs

22% outlying suburbs

http://Realtor.com  via RISMedia

  • 1/3rd of active home shoppers are Millennials aged 25-34 of which 74% are 1st time homebuyers – http://Realtor.com  via RISMedia
  • 49% of those refinancing in Q1 2017 took cash out (most since 2008) up from 44% in Q4 2016 but far short of the 89% in Q3 2006 – Freddie Mac
  • 2% of all single family homes were rented in 2016 vs 12.7% in 2005 – Zillow
  • Suburban rents rose 2.5% last year while median urban rents rose a median 2.3% – Zillow
  • Residential loans in foreclosure hit a decade low in Q1 2017, with just 1.39% of homes with mortgages – MBA
  • The average debt in collections for cellular phone accounts is $887 with utility bills at $368 – Credit Sesame via MarketWatch
  • Since the end of October 2016 US oil producers have increased oil production 900,000 barrels per day offsetting Saudi & Russia cuts – CME
  • Based on 1st year starting salary, 9 of top 10 college degrees with the potential to buy a home are in the engineering field – HousingWire
  • 33,000 single family homes will built for rentals in 4 quarters ending Q1 2017, with 4.1% of all SFR new construction in Q1 rentals – NAHB
  • Retail sector loans had a 1% default rate in 2016, but FitchRatings is forecasting a 9% retail default rate year-end 2017 – American Banker
  • 3,000 retail stores closed their doors in Q1 2017 compared to 4,000 closings in the entire year in 2016 – American Banker via MBA
  • 3% of renters ‘Prefer’ or ‘Strongly Prefer’ to own rather than rent with 63.6% likely to buy a home – NY Fed via RISMedia
  • Among Social Security recipients, 48% of couples & 71% of singles count on Social Security for at least half of their income – USA Today
  • Worst Traffic Jams in US

Santa Monica

Miami-Miami Beach

Atlanta

San Francisco

New York City

Auto Insurance Center via USA Today

  • 8 of the 10 most expensive apartment rent ZIP Codes are in Manhattan Island and 4 of the 10 least expensive are in Wichita Kansas – RENTCafe
  • NAR forecasts new home starts will rise 8.4% to 1.27 million in 2017, with new home sales up 8.4% to 620,000 – HousingWire
  • NAR now forecasting a 3.5% increase in existing home sales in 2016 to 5.62 million, the most since 2006 with median prices up 5.0%
  • The number of Americans on unemployment fell by 22,000 in early May to 1.9 million, the fewest seen since 1988 – BLS
  • British Residential rents rose 1.8% in the 12-months ending April 2017 – PropertyWire
  • California median home prices rose 32% in Q1 2017 vs a year ago to $496,620 requiring at least $102,050 annual income to buy – CAR
  • Q1 2017 median existing home prices rose 6.9% year-over-year, driven by the strongest quarterly sales rate in a decade – NAR
  • Global inflation rising? UK consumer prices rose 2.7% in the 12-months ending April 2017, up from 2.3% in March – MarketWatch
  • Orlando & Tampa are the top markets for 1st-time homebuyers based on affordability & inventory – Zillow
  • Consumer sentiment index hit a 12-year high in May 2017 per the University of Michigan survey, up 3.2% from a year ago
  • Online retail sales were up 10.7% in the 1st 4 months of 2017 vs a year ago compared to a 5.2% decline at department stores – Commerce Dept
  • US retail sales were up 4.5% in April 2017 vs a year ago with a 0.4% gain in the month – Commerce Department
  • Millennial’s economic outlook rises as their unemployment rate dropped from 6.28% a year ago to 5.25% in April 2017 – Mortgage Daily
  • 1st-time homebuyers made up 35% of the market in 2016, up from a 30-year low of 32% in 2015 – Wall Street Journal ( WSJ)
  • 2017 New Homebuyer Drivers multiple answers

16% single

30% couples no kids

68% families with kids

41% empty nesters

9% foreign

Hanley Wood

  • 40 million Americans will move in 2017 according to the US Census Bureau, 65% doing so between Memorial Day & Labor Day – RIS Media
  • The US currently has 5.7 million job openings, close to all-time record 5.9 million seen in July 2016 – CNN Money
  • Residential Rates Week Ending May 11, 2017

4.05% 30-year fixed

3.29% 15-year fixed

3.14% 5-year fixed US Treasury Index ARM

Freddie Mac

  • February 2017 had the smallest total residential lending volume ($89.987 billion) since February 2001 – ATTOM Data Solutions
  • The US Producer Price Index (weighted index of prices at wholesale level) jumped 0.5% in April 2017 & is up 2.5% in the latest 12 months
  • Austin’s Industrial CRE market saw 622,956 sq ft of NEGATIVE absorption in Q1 2017, biggest decline since Q1 2014 – Collier International
  • Healthiest Cities in America 2017

San Francisco

Salt Lake City

Scottsdale

Seattle

Portland OR

Irvine CA

Honolulu

Wash D.C.

WalletHub

  • 2016 Hotel Gross Profit Percent Change vs 2015

2.9% full service hotels

0.8% limited service

3.6% upper scale

0.3% mid-scale-economy

STR

  • US hotel industry revenue hit $199 billion in 2016, up 4.5% vs 2015, with 2015 up 8.1% vs 2014 – STR
  • Just 1 out of every 1,723 US housing units had a foreclosure filing in April 2017, topping at 1 in 562 in New Jersey – ATTOM Data Solutions
  • Just 77,049 residential foreclosures were filed in April 2017, down 23% from a year ago and the fewest since November 2005 – ATTOM
  • Despite perception, most Millennials (90%) would like to stay in their job for 10 years IF they get annual raises & upward mobility – @CNBC
  • 49% of non-homeowners surveyed by Gallup intend to buy a home in the next 5 years, 20% more in 10 years with 10% in the coming 12-months
  • Top Hiring Sectors Past 12-Months – Percentage Rise

Software & Information Tech

Temp Workers

Construction

Healthcare

Education

USA Today

  • London residential rents for new tenancies fell 1.2% year-over-year in April 2017, the first decline since 2009 – PropertyWire
  • US median rent of $1,416 will cover principle, interest, taxes & insurance on a home costing $289,505, covering 56.8% of listings – Zillow
  • 4 Rules For Selling a House From http://Realtor.com 

#4 Devise a Plan for Multiple Offers

There is No Inventory – Sellers Rule

#3 Splurge on Staging

Presentation is Everything! Sell 88% Faster, 20% More

#2 Amp Up Your Marketing

Not just photos: videos, social media, virtual

#1 Price it Right From the Outset

Pay attention to the Realtor’s CMA

  • The US added 211,000 net new jobs in April 2017, almost triple the 79,000 created in March, unemployment rate dropped to a 10-year low 4.4%
  • Percent of Homebuyers With Student Debt 2017

27% All

46% Aged 36 & Younger

27% 37 – 51

12% 52 – 61

4% 62 – 70

NAR

  • Average asking rents for ground-floor retail in Manhattan rose 95% from Q1 2011 to Q1 2014 to $1,073 per sq ft, now down 21% to $850 – CBRE
  • Single tenant, net lease properties sold in Q1 2017 had a median 6.05% cap rate and an average 6.27% – NNNet Advisers
  • Average Millennial Homebuyer FICO Scores 2017

720 March

723 February

724 January

Ellie Mae

  • Freddie Mac’s serious delinquency rate (mortgages 90 days or more past due) is now below 1% for the 1st time since 2008
  • The unemployment rate declined in 336 of the 388 Metropolitan Statistical Areas ( MSAs) in March 2017, no change in 14 – BLS
  • Hotel room rates were up 2.5% in Q1 2017 vs a year ago, with RevPAR (revenue per available room) up 3.4% – CBRE
  • Q1 2017 Hotel Demand Growth Year-Over-Year

5.8% Upscale Hotels

3.8% Upper-Midscale Hotels

0.4% Economy Hotels

CBRE

  • Demand for hotel rooms in the was up 2.8% in Q1 2017 vs a year ago after rising 2.3% in Q4 2016, occupancy was 61.1% – STR CBRE
  • The average daily supply of US hotel rooms increased 1.9% in Q1 2017 to 5.95 million, with 190,000 currently under construction – CBRE
  • 8 million Americans have filed an income tax return thus far in 2017 with an average refund of $2,763, up 2% vs 2015 – USA Today
  • Global crude oil demand is increasing each year by 1 million barrels per day. US consumed 19.6 million barrels daily in 2016 – CNBC & EIA
  • Forecast 12-Month Home Price Gain March 2018

4.4% West Virginia

4.2% Wisconsin

5.0% Wyoming

CoreLogic

  • Forecast 12-Month Home Price Gain March 2018

2.3% Texas

5.2% Utah

5.5% Vermont

4.1% Virginia

6.2% Washington

CoreLogic

  • Forecast 12-Month Home Price Gain March 2018

6.2% Oregon

4.3% Rhode Island

3.7% South Carolina

3.4% South Dakota

3.0% Tennessee

CoreLogic

  • Forecast 12-Month Home Price Gain March 2018

4.7% New York

4.0% North Carolina

1.0% North Dakota

4.1% Ohio

3.3% Oklahoma

CoreLogic

  • Forecast 12-Month Home Price Gain March 2018

3.7% Nebraska

9.4% Nevada

6.1% New Hampshire

5.0% New Jersey

4.6% New Mexico

CoreLogic

  • Forecast 12-Month Home Price Gain March 2018

5.6% Michigan

3.3% Minnesota

3.0% Mississippi

4.4% Missouri

5.8% Montana

CoreLogic

  • Forecast 12-Month Home Price Gain March 20180% Kentucky
    2.2% Louisiana
    5.2% Maine
    4.0% Maryland
    6.2% Massachusetts
    CoreLogic
  • Forecast 12-Month Home Price Gain March 2018

6.7% Hawaii

4.9% Idaho

4.6% Illinois

4.6% Indiana

3.6% Iowa

4.2% Kansas

CoreLogic

  • Forecast 12-Month Home Price Gain March 2018

5.9% Connecticut

3.6% Delaware

3.7% District of Columbia

5.9% Florida

3.6% Georgia

CoreLogic

  • Forecast 12-Month Home Price Gain March 2018

4.0% Alabama

6.1% Alaska

6.5% Arizona

4.2% Arkansas

10.1% California

6.0% Colorado

CoreLogic

  • States Reaching an All-Time Record Home Price in March 2017

AR CO GA HI IN LA MA NC ND NY OR SC TX UT WA

CoreLogic

  • States Furthest Below Historical Peak Home Price

-29.9% Nevada

-20.9% Connecticut

-20.2% Florida

-19.6% Maryland

-19.4% Arizona

CoreLogic

  • Top 12-Month Home Price Increase 12-Months Ending March 2017

12.8% Washington

9.9% Utah 9.4% Oregon

8.7% Colorado

8.4% Idaho

CoreLogic

  • Home prices were up 7.1% in the 12-months ending March 2017, forecast to rise 4.9 percent in the 12-months ending March 2018 – CoreLogic
  • Almost 600,000 Americans moved from Midwest &. Northeast to the South in 2016, most since 2005, as rust belt exodus resumed – Brookings-MBA
  • Impact of a potential cash repatriation tax cut program: Apple has an estimated $250 billion in cash, more than 90%parked offshore – WSJ
  • The average healthy 65-year old couple will spend an average $377,000 in healthcare in retirement, not including long-term costs – USA Today
  • S&P500 Q1 2017 earnings growth hit 13.6%, best since 2011 & almost double the 8% of Q1 2016, yet GDP was 0.7%, lowest in 3 years – USA Today
  • US households not paying with reward credit cards lose an average $50 annually, paying with reward cards gain $240 – Boston Fed via WSJ
  • US residential rents rose just 0.7% in the 12-months ending March 2017, smallest gain since November 2012, median rent now $1,408 – Zillow
  • Online retail sales increased to 8.3% of total national retail sales in 2016, compounding impact of rising dollar on NYC retail space – CBRE
  • Manhattan Retail Asking Rents rose by 90.0% from 2012 to 2014, dropped an average 2.7% in past 12 months, available space up 24.4% – CBRE
  • Global retail space completions totaled 134.5 million sq ft of shopping centers in 2016, up 11.4% vs 2015 – CBRE
  • “Cyber risk is a growing threat that can adversely affect credit ratings as attacks can compromise customer data and disrupt websites” Fitch
  • Q1 2017 initial GDP estimated at an annualized 0.7%, below expectations of 0.9%,decline due to smallest consumer spending growth since 2009
  • Distressed Sales – January 2017

17.3% Connecticut

16.3% Maryland

15.1% Michigan

15.1% New Jersey

12.8% Illinois

CoreLogic

  • For the 1st time in a decade, Q1 2017 saw more new homeowner households (854,000) than new renter households (365,000) – WSJ
  • The average cost of retirement has risen to $738,400 of which $260,000 will go healthcare costs alone – Merrill Lynch survey March 2017
  • US real estate transaction volume for apartments fell 35% in Q1 2017 vs a year ago to $26.0 billion – Real Capital Analytics (RCA)
  • NYC’s Rent Guidelines Board likely to approve 1% to 3% rent increase for 1 million rent stabilized tenants – landlord costs up 6.2% – WSJ
  • US Industrial Property Forecast

Rents up 3% annually 2017 & 2018

Vacancy may fall from 8.2% to 7.5% in 2018, lower than 1990s

Ten-X

  • March 2017 Existing Pending Home Sales Index essentially unchanged: +0.8% year-over-year, -0.8% sequentially from February 2017 – NAR
  • Average Home Ownership (years) for Sellers

Q1 2000-Q3 2007   4.26 years

Q1 2016 7.68

Q4 2016 8.00

Q1 2017 7.97

ATTOM Data Solutions

  • The typical US homeseller in Q1 2017 had owned their home 7.97 years & realized an average $44,000 price gain – ATTOM Data Solutions via MBA
  • 30-Year Residential Fixed-Rate Conventional Loan Interest Rate Forecasts – April 2017

 

6-11-17 table1

  • Commercial Real Estate Sales Volume Survey Consensus – $ Billions

$547 2015 Actual

$489 2016 Actual

$450 2017 Consensus. -8.0%

ULI

  • 72% of small business (100 or fewer employees) expect to do well in coming year vs performance today (64% in late 2015) – Allstate/USA Today
  • Small Business Optimism: 64% of firms with 100 or fewer employees are doing well vs 61% in late 2015, survey of 2,790 – Allstate/USA Today
  • 2016 US hotel revenues were $200+ billion, up almost $9 billion from 2015, gross operating profit up 3.7%, future key is cost control – STR
  • US home prices have risen almost 40% since 2012 while incomes are up just 12% in the same period squeezing affordability – WSJ
  • A record $30 of trillion of wealth will transfer from Baby Boomers to Millennials in the next 30 years – MarketWatch
  • Minimum 32 feet clearance is the new standard in modern warehouses & industrial properties making up 40% of net absorption since 2014 – CBRE
  • Highest Metro Office Vacancy Rates Q1 2017

22.0% Albuquerque

20.5% Stamford

19.1% Dallas-Ft Worth

18.8% Cincinnati

18.7% Westchester

CBRE

  • Lowest Metro Office Vacancy Rates Q1 2017

6.5% San Francisco

6.7% Oakland

7.5% San Jose

7.7% Manhattan

7.9% Walnut Creek/I-680

CBRE

  • Highest Downtown Office Vacancy Rates Q1 2017

31.2% Albuquerque

28.1% Tucson

27.9% Dallas- Ft Worth

25.1% St Louis

21.9% Wilmington

CBRE

  • Lowest Downtown Office Vacancy Rates Q1 2017

4.5% Oakland

6.4% San Francisco

6.5% Mid- South Manhattan

7.8% Charlotte

7.9% Austin

CBRE

  • Largest US Office Vacancy Rate Decline Q1 2016 to Q1 2017 – Basis Points

-340 Orlando

-280 Ft Lauderdale

-260 Palm Beach County

CBRE

  • Share of US Office Space Currently Under Construction

13% Manhattan

12% San Jose

9% San Francisco

9% D.C.

7% Dallas- Ft Worth

CBRE

  • Top Metro Office Absorption Q1 2017 – Million Sq Ft

1.60 New Jersey

1.03 Seattle

1.02 Phoenix

0.60 Orange County

0.60 Philadelphia

CBRE

  • US office space gross average gross asking rent increased 4.9% on an annualized basis in Q1 2017 to $31.99 per sq ft – CBRE
  • US office markets saw 7.2 million sq ft absorption in Q2, 12 million of new delivery and a 10 basis point increase in vacancy to 13% – CBRE
  • Nasdaq closed above 6,000 for the 1st time in history today, driven by strong earnings, improving global outlook & anticipated tax reform
  • US home construction laborer shortages pushed up costs 5.2 percent in a 12-month period last year – NAHB/Wells Fargo Surveys via Bloomberg
  • Fewest New Net Jobs 12-Months Ending March 2017 By State

6-11-17 table2

  • Most New Net Jobs 12-Months Ending March 2017 By State

6-11-17 table3

  • Hines’ new CBD Houston office tower under construction is almost 50% leased despite 36 million vacant sq ft of Houston office space – RNR
  • Worst Performing Percentage Job Growth States, 12-Months Ending March 2017

6-11-17 table4

  • Top Percentage Job Growth States, 12-Months Ending March 2017

6-11-17 table5

  • The use of FHA insured reverse mortgages (HECMs = Home Equity Conversion Mortgages) has plunged from 114,692 in 2009 to 48,902 in 2016 – MBA
  • Approximately 8 million Americans owing more than $137 billion in college loans are at least 360 days in arrears on payments – WSJ
  • Almost 4 in 10 college loans made from 2006-2010 went to students with a 620 or lower credit score, a subprime credit risk rating – WSJ
  • The 589,000 seriously delinquent loans in March 2017 (90 days or more past due) was down by 144,000 vs a year ago (19.6%) – Black Knight
  • 1st look at March 2017 mortgage delinquencies finds the lowest rate since March 2006 and also 4th lowest of this century – Black Knight
  • Nasdaq closed at an all-time record 5,983.82 driven by rising global equity markets & potentially soon-to-be announced US tax reform
  • Investors purchased 15% of all existing home sales in March 2017 vs 14% a year ago, paying all-cash 63% of the time – NAR
  • 23% of all existing home sales closings were all-cash transactions in March 2017 vs 25% a year ago – NAR
  • Current inventory of existing home sales listings as of the end of March 2017 was just 3.8 months compared to a normal 6.0 months – NAR
  • 83 million listings of existing home sales at end of March 2017 was down 6.6% vs a year ago, declining 22 consecutive months YOY – NAR
  • Existing Home Sales Days on Market March 2017

90 days short sales

52 days foreclosures

32 days non-distressed sales

34 days all sales

NAR

  • 48% of all existing home sales were on the market less than 1 month for closings made in March 2017 – National Association of Realtors (NAR)
  • Median existing home price March 2017 at $236,400 up 6.8% YOY, 12-month moving average median at $235,790 up 5.8%, an all-time record – NAR
  • Existing home sales in March 2017 at 5.71 million SAAR, up 5.9% year-over-year & most since February 2007 – National Association of Realtors
  • San Luis Obispo – Most Financially Stretched City (medians)

$546,200 home price

$333,641 mortgage debt

$16,565 individual income

WalletHub

  • Panera plans to hire 10,000 delivery drivers by year end, expected to increase revenue per store by $250,000 to $2.6 million – MarketWatch
  • The health care industry’s corporate debt increased 308% since 2009, more than 10 times job & GDP gains – John Burns Real Estate Consulting
  • Average residential rent is now $1,408, & given an expected 1% rise in rents this year, income needs to grow $168 per month – Zillow
  • Q1 2017 residential foreclosures were down 19% from a year ago to 234,508, the lowest recorded in a quarter since Q3 2006 – ATTOM Data
  • Dog bite claims (plus scratching, knocking down or scaring) on homeowners insurance policies was $600+ million in 2016 – III & State Farm
  • Dog bite claims made up more than 1/3rd of all homeowner insurance liability claims averaging $33,230 each in 2016 – III & State Farm
  • The average retired workers Social Security benefit payment was $1,363.66 totaling $16,363.92 annually as of February 2017 – USA Today
  • More than 61 million Americans received benefits from Social Security in February 2017, 2/3rds were retired (41.51 million) – USA Today
  • K. Retail sales fell 1.4% in Q1 2017 on a seasonally adjusted basis as rising inflation trimmed consumers pocket books – WSJ
  • Retail store margins fell from 10.5% in 2012 to 9% in 2016 while in the same period online sales rose from 10.5% to 15.5% of all sales – WSJ
  • Current pace of retail store closings sees more than 8,600 stores shuttering in 2017 exceeding the number in the 2008 recession – WSJ
  • Through April 6, 2017, US retailers announced the planned shuttering of 2,880 locations, more than double the pace of 2016 – Credit Suisse
  • 17 million 1st-time homebuyers are projected to enter the market by 2021 – TransUnion
  • Average Canadian home prices in the Greater Toronto & Oakville- Milton markets rose in the 30% range YOY March 2017 – CREA via PropertyWire
  • Excluding Greater Toronto & Vancouver markets, average Canadian March 2017 home price drops from $548,517 to $389,762 – CREA
  • Canadian housing sales were up 6.6% in March 2017 year-over-year with average price up 8.2% at $548,517 – Canadian Real Estate Association
  • 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage loan rates averaged 3.97% this past week, 1st time below 4% since before the election – Freddie Mac
  • The number of out of work people collecting an unemployment check fell to the lowest in 17 years in March 2017 – BLS via MarketWatch
  • The average number of days to close a residential loan was 43 days in March 2017, the fewest since February 2015 (pre-TRID) – Ellie Mae
  • Why 91% of Millennials Would Use a Local RE Agent

Personal touch

Handholding

Local knowledge

Hassle

Longstanding relationship

CentSai

  • 71% of Millennials surveyed would prefer using a local mortgage lender vs an online lender when buying a home – CertSai via RISMedia
  • 75% of Millennials surveyed would prefer using a local real estate agent vs an online agent when buying a home – CertSai via RISMedia
  • Top Suburban Office Market Rent Increases 2016

16.2% Nashville

11.9% Cambridge MA

11.4% Oakland

10.1% Atlanta

9.7% Greensville

CBRE

  • US commercial real estate investor return expectations expected to decline from 8.7% in 2016 to 7.4% in 2017 – IREI
  • Institutional investors (banks, REITs, insurance companies, pensions) expected to reduce capital commitments to CRE 19% in 2017 – IREI
  • Based on the likeliness a home loan going to default, lenders today could double their risk & still be less than ’01–’03 – Urban Institute
  • Why Housing Inventory Remains Low

1 Fear of low inventory keeps owners from listing

2 Rising rates

3 Home prices

4 Starts

Freddie Mac

  • Total Home Mortgage Loan Increase Past 9 Years 52.3% North Dakota 32.4% Wyoming 27.2% Louisiana 27.1% Texas Experian

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