State Gross Domestic Product Q1 to Q2 2017 Compound Annualized Growth Rates — The Most Comprehensive Measure of Economic Activity

The total value of all goods and services produced, expressed in inflation-adjusted dollars, is defined as the Real Gross Domestic Product (Real GDP) and is the most comprehensive measure of economic activity.   Naturally there is recurring systematic variability based on the respective quarter of the year and massive differences from state-to-state in addition to general trends and economic shocks and interruptions.

Each quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) breaks out both the U.S. and individual state’s GDPs.  Given the material differences in state population, job numbers, natural resources and infrastructure, one of the best recognized measures is the compound change on an analyzed basis from one quarter to the next, calculated on an annualized basis to make the seasonal impact disappear allowing a transparent analysis.

The following table shows the real GDP change on a compound annual basis for each state and the U.S. from Q1 2017 to Q2 2017, just released by the BEA. The left side shows the data alphabetically by state, while right side sorts from greatest to the least compound growth rates.

First be aware that the growth rate is the change (acceleration or deceleration) from the previous quarter expressed as a compound change on an annualized basis.   Thus if a state had a smoking hot GDP in the prior period but it did not change in the latest period, the growth rate would be zero but it still represents a very robust economy.

Also of importance is what general segment of the economy is growing, stable or cooling.  In Q2 2017, the Mining Sector (which includes oil, natural gas and coal along with other minerals) was the largest growing segment of the U.S. economy increasing 28.6 percent and having a material positive impact on the economies of North Dakota, Wyoming and Texas.   At the same time, the Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting sector posted a  10.6 percent decline  and reduced the growth in 25 states — all of the plains states and was “the leading contributor to the decreases in real GDP in Iowa and South Dakota–the only two states to decrease in the second quarter.”

To read the press release from the BEA on Q2 vs Q1 GDP changes by state click https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/gdp_state/qgsp_newsrelease.htm?utm_source=CPRE-QGSP2+11%2f21%2f2017&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=news_release&utm_content=QGSP2+-+11%2f21%2f2017+8%3a30%3a00+AM

To download GDP data specific information series for the U.S. states and geographic regions click https://www.bea.gov/itable/iTable.cfm?ReqID=70&step=1#reqid=70&step=6&isuri=1&7003=900&7004=naics&7005=-1&7001=5900&7002=5&7090=70

Further data resolution can be downloaded for the following segments from the BEA:

All industry total
Private industries
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable goods manufacturing
Nondurable goods manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Transportation and warehousing
Information
Finance and insurance
Real estate and rental and leasing
Professional, scientific, and technical services
Management of companies and enterprises
Administrative and waste management services
Educational services
Health care and social assistance
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
Accommodation and food services
Other services, except government
Government

Ted

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