Axioms are truths, and my primary Axiom is that Jobs Are everything to the economy and the ultimate demand for real estate. Period. That is also my speech topic for 2019. Hence the relevance of this blog.
Job growth, however, is not systemic across the country by state, Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) or Division. Just like states, variability in job growth exists across all MSAs and Divisions at any time and also within the same area over a period of time. As usual, I invoke the TINSTAANREM axiom — There Is No Such Thing As A National Real Estate Market or a National Economy. The same is true regarding job growth.
The first table shows the percent change in jobs for top-20 MSAs and Divisions with the largest percentage increase for the 12-months ending January 2019. The analysis is based on seasonally adjusted data as provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In comparison, the U.S. posted a 1.90 percent gain in the same period. There are recurring themes throughout these top performing MSAs: energy, tech, destinations, college towns and manufacturing.
When there are winners, there are also under-performers. The next list shows the 20 markets with the greatest percentage of job losses for the 12-months ending January 2019.
The next table shows the 20 MSAs and Divisions that created the greatest number of jobs in the prior 12-months. There is overlap in several markets. New York City is included in the MSA and Division rankings of 1st (New York-Newark-Jersey), 2nd (New York, Jersey City-White Plains) and 4th (New York City). Naturally, the largest cities have the greatest gains in jobs, but the percentage may not be that stellar.
Click here for a PDF including respective job performance for all 436 MSAs and Divisions. It is sorted alphabetically by state and the MSA-Division and includes percent job growth for the prior 12-months, net job gains and total number of jobs – in thousands. In addition are metrics for job growth rates for the past 2-years, 5-years and 10-years.
The primary Axiom is correct: JOBS ARE EVERYTHING when it comes to the economy and the resulting demand for real estate. Period.