Jobs are everything to an economy. So goes jobs, so goes the demand for real estate.
As usual, I invoke the TINSTAANREM axiom — There Is No Such Thing As A National Real Estate Market or a National Economy. The same is true regarding job growth. It varies from location to location and also at specific locales over time.
Job growth for the top-40 MSAs and Divisions ranked by percentage increase with the largest percentage for the 12-months ending April 2019 are shown in the table. The analysis is based on seasonally adjusted data as provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In comparison, the U.S. posted a 1.76 percent gain in the same period. Reno’s 12-month job growth was more than three times that of the U.S. There are recurring themes continuing throughout these top performing MSAs: energy, tech, travel destinations, college towns, government, retirement locations and manufacturing.
In every segment of the economy are both over-performers and underperformers. The next table shows the 40 markets with the greatest percentage of job losses in the 12-months ending April 2019. Fully three-fourths of the 40 MSAs with job losses had less than 100,000 total jobs.
The next table shows the 40 MSAs (including Divisions and CMSAs) that created the greatest number of net new jobs in the prior 12-months. Naturally, the largest cities tend to have the greatest gains in jobs, but the percentage increase may or may not be that stellar. The New York-Newark-Jersey City MSA, for example, is the largest in the country with almost 10 million total jobs. The job growth rate at 1.54 percent is less than one-half the Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale MSA (3.41 percent).
Click here for a PDF including longer-term performance for all 436 MSAs and Divisions sorted by state. In addition to the latest 12-month time period, job growth rates for the prior two-, five- and 10-years were calculated. Each of the 1-, 2- 5- and 10-year job growth ranks are shown, with the ranks summed. Overall, when considering the four differing durations measured, St George, Utah posted the best top job growth. St George ranked 4th in the past 12 month and 10 year periods, 3rd best in the past two years and 1st overall in the past five years. This analysis shows the relative consistency (or lack thereof) for job growth for the past 12 months to 10 years.
JOBS ARE EVERYTHING when it comes to the economy and the resulting demand for real estate. Period.