The U.S. just entered the longest economic expansion in history having grown 121 months. Job growth nationwide was 1.54 percent in the 12 months ending June 2019 compared to a 1.43 percent annual compound rate for the past 40 years. Job growth is not systemic, however. As usual, I invoke the TINSTAANREM axiom — There Is No Such Thing As A National Real Estate Market or a National Economy. The same is true regarding job growth. It varies from location to location and also at specific locales over time.
Growth rates for the 50 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) and Divisions with the largest percentage job gains in the 12-months ending June 2019 are shown in the table. The analysis is based on seasonally adjusted data as provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Recurring themes are ongoing in these top-performing MSAs: energy, tech, travel destinations, college towns, government, retirement locations and manufacturing. Thirty six of the top 50 markets had growth rates at least double the national level.
In every segment of the economy are both over-performers and underperformers. The next table shows the 50 markets with the greatest percentage of job losses in the 12-months ending June 2019.
The next table shows the 50 MSAs (excluding Divisions and CMSAs) that created the greatest number of net new jobs in the prior 12-months. The largest cities tend to have the greatest gains in jobs, but the percentage increase may or may not be that stellar. The New York-Newark-New Jersey MSA, for example, is the largest in the country and has almost 10 million total jobs. But the New York MSA’s job growth rate of 1.12 percent is approximately one-third the Dallas-Ft Worth-Arlington MSA (3.18 percent).
The last table shows the job growth rates for the past 12-months, 2-, 5- and 10 years along with a Growth Index Rank. The Index was calculated by ranking job growth rates across the four differing durations and weighting equally for the top 50 growth markets. St George, Utah, for example, ranked 3rd best for 12-month and 10-year job growth, 2nd best in 2-years and 1st best for 5-years, with the sum of the ranks totaling nine (the least score for all 436 MSAs and Divisions, hence scorings 1st in the Growth Index Score Rank.
Click here for a PDF including respective job performance for all 436 MSAs and Divisions sorted by state. Included are job growth rates for the latest 12-months, two-, five- and 10-year intervals.
JOBS ARE EVERYTHING when it comes to the economy and the resulting demand for real estate. Period.