Last week, 24/7 Wall Street analyzed the greatest incidence of Coronavirus by state. This study by them takes the next step in data resolution by reviewing the incidence of Coronavirus by Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). They examined almost 400 metros in order to identify the 50 cities with the most confirmed Coronavirus cases as of May 27, 2020, adjusted for population (per 100,000 people) allowing an apples-to-apples statistical comparison.
Just because a state had a high level of Coronavirus infection rates does not necessarily correspond to all metros in that state. Infection of the virus is local in basis and not necessarily statewide. Texas, for example, the 2nd-most populous state in the U.S. has just one city in the top-50 – Amarillo. Once again the TINSTAANREM axiom is invoked — There Is No Such Thing As A National Real Estate Market or economy. The same is true regarding the occurrence of the Coronavirus infection rate across the country.
The following table shows the 10-MSAs with the most confirmed Coronavirus cases per 100,000 people as of May 27, 2020. Also included is the population density per square mile. Obviously a high-density population is not a prerequisite for inclusion in the list of metros with the greatest number of Coronavirus cases per 100,000 people. The New York-Newark-Jersey City MSA has 64 times greater population density than Pine Bluff, Arkansas, which rank 2nd and 7th, respectively, in the most Coronavirus Cases per 100,000 people.
The next table shows the metros with the greatest average number of new cases per day in the seven days ending May 27, 2020.
The greatest number of Coronavirus-related deaths through May 27, 2020 are shown in the next table. All but two of the MSAs were located East of the Mississippi, the exceptions being Farmington, New Mexico and New Orleans-Metairie, Louisiana.
Data for all of the 50 metros making the list with the most confirmed Coronavirus cases per 100,000 population as of May 27, 2020 are shown in the last table, sorted alphabetically by MSA.
To read the entire study click https://247wallst.com/special-report/2020/05/29/cities-with-the-highest-number-of-covid-19-cases-2/
To access the prior Stewart Blog on Coronavirus cases by State click http://blog.stewart.com/stewart/2020/06/01/states-where-coronavirus-is-growing-the-most-and-least-week-ending-may-25-2020/
Good news this morning in the daily NYSE Morning Update to traded companies was the following statement, paying special attention to the underlined segment:
“White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said he worries about the “durability” of a potential coronavirus vaccine, saying there’s a chance it may not provide long-term immunity. In more positive news, he also says the U.S. should have 100 million doses of one Covid-19 vaccine by years end. Biotech firm Moderna’s first viable vaccine candidate should go into the final stage of trials by mid-summer. Probably the most interesting coronavirus tidbit; it has been reported that Wuhan city has found no new cases of people suffering from COVID-19 after testing almost its entire population, with 300 asymptomatic carriers of the virus.”
I have no doubt that we will overcome this – but uncertainty remains as to how and when. That uncertainty translates into ongoing risk.
Good news, thus far, is that the states that commenced to open up their economics first have not seen a statewide-second wave of Coronavirus infections that could have been measured in the average number of new Coronavirus infections per day for the seven days ending May 27, 2020. Time will tell, though.