Just Five States Post Year-Over-Year New Home Sales
Posted by Ted C. Jones on February 3, 2011
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Just five states posted an increase in new home sales in 2010 when compared to 2009. Four of the five have comparatively low unemployment rates.
As shown in the graph below, new home sales (on a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate) were down nationwide 13.4 percent in 2010 to 322,833 versus 372,750 in 2009.
The 12-month moving average peak sales of new homes was recorded in January 2006 at 1,307,083. That makes the 2010 sales off a massive 75 percent from the peak. The second graph shows the 12-month moving average and that trend is still trickling downwards.
While I anticipate monthly increases (double digit percentage wise when compared to the same month of the prior year) in 2011, an 11 to 22 percent increase in sales is still miniscule. (Fannie Mae’s latest forecast is for a 17.4 percent increase in new home sales in 2011). Nor do I anticipate a return to 1 million plus new home sales for the next 24 to 36 months.
5 States With Biggest Gain in New Home Closings- Realtor.org
As the article above shows, however, every real estate market is unique.
Tell me what you think.
