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Jobs: Where It’s Hot and Where It’s Not

Posted by Ted C. Jones on October 4, 2011

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Jobs are everything to the long-run health for the economy and housing markets. But there really is no such thing as a national economy or housing market since each locality is so determinant.

The following tables break-down job growth to the Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) designations. An MSA is defined by the U.S. Census Bureau and is basically a free-standing urban population center with at least 50,000 surrounded by outlying areas (having a combined population of at least 100,000) with similar social and economic characteristics in which residents shop, worship and work across the area. Generally, MSAs border non-urban areas.

Not only do these tables list the current number of jobs this past August 2011 (in thousands) and the number jobs a year ago for the same month, it also lists the percent change in jobs from August 2010 to August 2011. Note: These are not seasonally adjusted data, so you must only compare this August to prior Augusts only otherwise the seasonality that exists renders the comparison meaningless. Also listed are the number of jobs in August 2007 and the respective percent change in jobs since that period. For many market areas, 2007 was an all-time record number of jobs. So this comparison serves as a proxy as to how far from the peak each of these markets currently resides.

Top and Bottom U.S. Markets

So where are the hottest (and coldest) job markets across the country? When looking at all MSAs (and there are approximately 400 excluding some duplicates in divisions), the top 10 of all workforce size are below. Note that all of these markets had less than 130,000 total jobs.

Top Performers

And the not-so-hot 10 markets regardless of size (and I excluded a market area in Puerto Rico that has less than 14,000 jobs). Again, there were no real large MSAs included with none having more than 200,000 jobs. Although the list includes three MSAs from California and two from Florida, it also includes one from Texas which in recent years was the most prolific job-producing state in the country.

Bottom Performers

So which are the markets closest to getting back to prior peak employment and which markets are the furthest away from the previous top job levels? Using August 2007 as a proxy for the peak, the following 10 markets are currently have more jobs than in 2007—and there were 54 MSAs with such distinction (approximately one in eight MSAs). The second table shows those markets that are furthest down from the employment peak. Seven out of every eight MSAs is in the loss category since 2007.

Top Job Growth Markets

Largest Job Loss Markets (as a percentage of jobs)

Just as motorcycles have different performance and characteristics than sedans, pickups and station wagons and 18 wheelers, so do differing markets based on the number of jobs. The following tables list the top and bottom ten performing markets based on the percent of jobs created or lost in the prior 12 months. Intervals include less than 50,000 jobs, from 50,000 to 100,000 jobs, from 100,000 to 250,000 jobs, from 250,000 to 500,000, from 500,000 to 1 million and those with one million or more total jobs.