MSA and Metro Division Job Losses and Gaines From the 2007-2008 Peak
Images for this post are temporaraly unavailable.
I had the opportunity to speak this week at the Midwest Regional ERC Conference in St Louis. When I talked with individuals from across the country I realized how important the statement is that “There Is No Such Thing As A National Real Estate Market — the TINSTAANREM clause — since not all markets are the same.” Nor is there an equal, across the board, national economy. Employment – Seasonally Adjusted MSAs Mar 2012 (pdf)
After essentially peaking in December 2007, job numbers in the U.S. are still down 5.33 million (and that is after spending almost $800 billion in the stimulus package that appears to have generated little more than debt). What about local markets? To find out where the markets that are still struggling and those that have replaced all of the jobs lost in the “Great Recession”, an analysis of seasonally adjusted employment numbers was completed covering the 408 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) and Metropolitan Divisions. The peak employment amount in 2007 to 2008 was compared to March 2012.
Of the 408 MSAs and Metro Divisions, 55 (13.5 percent) have already returned to the former peak employment numbers or exceed that level. From the glass is half-empty perspective though, 86.5 percent of the job markets have yet to recover.
The first table below lists the 25 MSAs and Metro Divisions that have lost the most jobs (as a percentage from the peak). Dalton, Georgia, for example, has lost and not yet replaced 20.1 percent of the jobs from the peak in 2007 to 2008.
The second table lists the 55 markets that have recovered all lost jobs (or added even more than the prior 2007-2008 peak). The attached PDF and Excel sheet list all 408 MSA and Metro Divisions.