Q4 2014 Commercial Real Estate Cycles from Dividend Capital

There is one blog topic that I write about quarterly that is preceded by several calls and emails as to when it is scheduled to be available – The Cycle Monitor – Real Estate Market Cycles from Dividend Capital, prepared by Dr. Glenn Mueller from the University of Denver. This nine page report gives a synopsis of commercial real estate conditions for five commercial property types across more than 50 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). To me it is akin to when you are at your Doctor’s office and they immediately take your blood pressure. This report quickly summarizes commercial real estate markets.

Dr. Mueller is a professor for the Burns School of Real Estate and Construction Management at Denver University. He is also the real estate investment strategist at Dividend Capital Group, where he provides real estate market-cycle research and investment strategy for Dividend Capital’s Real Estate Securities. He is the premier recognized expert in the study of commercial real estate cycles in the U.S.

He defines four distinct phases.

  • Recovery (declining vacancy, no new construction)
  • Expansion (declining vacancy, new construction)
  • Hypersupply (increasing vacancy, new construction)
  • Recession (increasing vacancy, more completions)

The following table summarizes the latest finding for each of the property types tracked. Once again hotels remained the top performing property type in rent growth both quarterly and annualized and in occupancy rates. Apartment occupancies did remain flat in Q4 2014, however, as construction of new multifamily supply is now picking up speed.

2-25-15 table

To download a copy of the Q4 2014 Dividend Capital Cycle Monitor click:


To obtain reports from prior quarters email: dividend.capital@dividendcapital.com

Dividend Capital has several Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITS) and specializes in real estate investments. To learn more about Dividend Capital click http://www.dividendcapital.com/index.html

Finally, to find out more about Dr. Glenn Muller click http://daniels.du.edu/faculty-staff/glenn-mueller/


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