Dividend Capital’s Real Estate Cycles Q1 2016 — Dr. Glenn Mueller

This is my favorite quarterly blog — Dr. Glenn Mueller’s Real Estate Cycles from Dividend Capital. Such a mass density of data in so little space.

Let’s talk commercial real estate markets in the top-50 metros in the country. This is the one report that shows where major property types are today given demand and supply.

This is the often requested summary of Dr. Glenn Mueller’s quarterly report on commercial real estate cycles. The Cycle Monitor – Real Estate Market Cycles from Dividend Capital is a quarterly report on commercial real estate conditions for five commercial property types and is an excellent resource for checking the pulse rate and blood pressure across markets.

Dr. Mueller is a professor for the Burns School of Real Estate and Construction Management at Denver University. He is also the real estate investment strategist at Dividend Capital Group, where he provides real estate market-cycle research and investment strategy for Dividend Capital’s Real Estate Securities. In my opinion, Dr. Mueller is the premier recognized expert in the study of commercial real estate cycles in the U.S.

Dr. Mueller defines four distinct phases in the commercial real estate cycle. These cycles provide intervals for investment and exit strategies for real estate investors.

  • Recovery (declining vacancy, no new construction)
  • Expansion (declining vacancy, new construction)
  • Hypersupply (increasing vacancy, new construction)
  • Recession (increasing vacancy, more completions)

The following table summarizes the latest findings for each of the property types. Occupancy rates increased only in hotels, was flat in industrial and retail properties, and declined (ever so minimally) in offices and apartments. Rents were up, however, in all property types in Q1 2016 plus annually showing the strength overall of U.S. commercial real estate markets.

6-14-16 table


To download the latest full report of Dr Glenn Mueller’s Dividend Capital Real Estate Cycles Report click http://info.dividendcapital.com/rs/751-HQV-963/images/Cycle_Monitor_16Q1_FINAL.pdf?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiWm1NM00yVTNPV1psTVRObSIsInQiOiJrUVRCS1VndFcwWWE1UDRTWE9FRklwUUZ1dEJ3NXNaWWJlQ3I3UDNENWFIUklnTk9UNFEzdWM5eWdBalZSUkZJQitkaCt2akNTa0ptUSt1SVNUQ0VIbStlaVh1VlppbStQNE9vRmdGTHpMVT0ifQ%3D%3D Be certain to exam each of the property types in the report focusing on cities that have excess supply.

To obtain reports from prior quarters email: dividend.capital@dividendcapital.com

Dividend Capital has several Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITS) and specializes in real estate investments. To learn more about Dividend Capital click http://www.dividendcapital.com

Finally, to find out more about Dr. Glenn Mueller click http://daniels.du.edu/faculty-staff/glenn-mueller/


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