GDP Growth by State — 2017 to 2018 and Q3 2018 to Q4 2018

While I live by the mantra and Axiom (truth) that Jobs are Everything, what those jobs pay are also critical in driving the purchase of goods and services ultimately fueling the economy.   Given the blurring of varying inflation over time, income and growth need to be adjusted and expressed in Real terms (inflation adjusted) rather Nominally (not inflation adjusted).

Neither job growth nor changes in income are equal and universal across the economic landscape at any point in time.  As usual, I invoke the TINSTAANREM axiom — There Is No Such Thing As A National Real Estate Market or a National Economy.  The same is true regarding economic growth as measured by GDP.

Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services of an economy over the term of a year (or when dealing with less than a year in duration annualized to reflect a yearly value).  It is considered the most accurate metric of economic growth.  GDP is calculated as follows:

GDP = C + G + I + NX

C = consumption of all consumer spending

G = total government spending

I = sum of investments on capital equipment, inventories and housing

NX = net exports minus total imports

The following table shows state changes in GDP for the full year both alphabetically and in order from best to worst in for 2017 to 2018.  Of the top-10 states in 2018 GDP growth, seven ranked in the top-10 states for percentage job growth for the 12-months ending March 2019,  and two others made the top 13 job growth slots.   There is a strong relationship between recent GDP growth and employment gains.   All but one state, Alaska, posted positive economic growth.

The next table shows the same GDP growth data from Q3 2018 to Q4 2018 on an annualized rate.  Essentially this table shows the states entering 2019 with the quickest (and slowest) economic growth velocity.

The last table shows the comparison between the annual 2018 GDP growth and that of Q4 2018 by including the difference in the respective ranks from an 2018 gains to those in Q4 of 2018.  Washington, for example, ranked 1st overall for growth in 2018 and 9th best in Q4 2018, slipping 9 ranks.  In contrast, Alaska and Wyoming vaulted from 51st and 50th ranks (annually) to 4th and 2nd best in Q4, respectively.

To access the quarterly and annual data and related analyses click  https://www.bea.gov/news/2019/gross-domestic-product-state-fourth-quarter-and-annual-2018

Ted

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