Jobs are everything to an economy and the ultimate effective demand for real estate. When the Pandemic broke out in March 2020, the immediate effect was the loss of 22.4 million jobs in the next 60 days across the U.S.. Good news is that all but 6 million of those have brought back (numerically speaking), but the recovery, just like the loss, is non-systematic across the country.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) monthly reports seasonally adjusted employment data on 380 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). Unfortunately, just 32 of the metros have more jobs today than in February 2020 – the month prior to the pandemic. The first table shows the 32 MSAs with more jobs today than at any time in history, plus eight others that are close to being back job wise. Metrics include change – percentage and number — of jobs from February 2020 through July 2021 and total number of jobs as of the end of July 2021. Among the 32 MSAs with more jobs today than ever, six are in Idaho, five in Utah, four in Florida and three each in Arizona and Texas. As of the end of June 2021 only 19 markets had recouped job numbers to pre-pandemic levels.
The next 40 metros are those with the greatest percentage decline in jobs from February 2020 through July 2021. More than one-half of the worst performing metros were found in four states: California and Pennsylvania each logged six while Michigan and New York each counted five.
The 40 metros missing the greatest number of jobs from February 2020 through July 2021 are listed in the next table. Just the first 10-metros account for one-half of the jobs in the U.S. not yet recovered. The New York-Newark-Jersey City metro alone is short almost 1 million jobs (977,100) when comparing July 2021 to February 2020.
Best and worst one-month job performance (percentage change from June 2021 to July 2021) is detailed in the last two tables for the top and bottom 40 metros. Among the best 1-month job growth rates, North Carolina has five MSAs, and California, Oregon and Georgia each have three. Withing the worst one-month job performance, Tennessee includes five metros and New York four.
Click here is access a PDF that includes all discussed metrics for the 380 MSAs.
To view and download the vast array of employment related data from the BLS click https://www.bls.gov/data/
While many MSAs are closing in on full job recovery, no doubt others may be decades away given the changes the pandemic spurred and accelerated in migration patterns – just as the Tax Cut and Jobs Creation Act did in 2017. As tax law changes in the future, this again will evolve.