A favorite economist term is, “Forecasting is easy, except the future.” As an economist, I concur, but forecasting is what economists do for a living. My favorite statement, however, is, “If I agree with your assumptions, then I agree with your conclusions.” That line shows the dilemma in forecasting housing sales and residential lending volumes …Read more
December 2020 monthly forecasts from Fannie Mae and the MBA show they continue to disagree on where home sales and residential lending volumes are trending for 2021. The divergence is a function of differing expectations regarding interest rates. Interest Rates Interest rates have a profound and material impact on housing affordability. The U.S. hit an …Read more
The surge in existing home sales continued, up 25.8 percent in November 2020 versus one-year ago on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) to 6.69 million as reported by the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). Though down 2.5 percent from the October SAAR, much of that is due to the decline in inventory of homes …Read more
The increased amount of time we are spending at home makes the residence more intrinsically valuable than at any time in people’s lives today. Coupled with record-low interest rates, new and existing home sales and refinance lending volumes continue to grow – with total residential lending now forecast by Fannie Mae to hit a record …Read more
Talk to almost any homebuyer today and ask the top hurdles facing them, it is all but guaranteed that affordability hits at or near top of their list of challenges. A strong headwind for homebuyers in the past 12-months was the 11.4 percent jump in the median sales price of existing homes when comparing August …Read more
It’s an election year, so things are always different – correct? Housing sales will be down no matter what? Right? The high-end market always slows – right? Both are myths – but are they true? MythBusters was one of my favorite TV shows years ago, but analyzing these housing sales myths is not going to …Read more
Each month Fannie Mae and the MBA forecast interest rates, residential lending, and both existing and new home sales. Freddie Mac does a quarterly forecast covering lending, interest rates and total home sales – existing plus new. The following tables summarize the latest forecasts as of June 2020. Interest Rates Differing expectations of interest rates …Read more
The economic impact of the Coronavirus varies from one city to the next just like medical symptoms and severity of those infected by the virus differs from one person to another. A myriad of factors affect how each local housing market will respond under these pressures and economic uncertainties. My favorite economic and real estate …Read more
In this day and age of mathematical precision and faster-than-light calculation speeds, answering the question as to existing home sales numbers and direction almost makes one stutter. The following bullets summarize November existing home sales statistics. Pick a number — pick any number — and what you saying is probably correct. Each of these data …Read more
While the U.S. has seen all-time record-high employment, the lowest unemployment rate in 50 years, and rising wages, home sales stuttered in 2018 and the first half of 2019 due to affordability. Home price increases in the past decade have out-sprinted income gains, negatively impacting affordability. Prices changes are not uniform nor consistent across the …Read more