Fortunately Fannie Mae and the MBA release monthly forecasts for residential lending volumes, new and existing home sales and interest rates. They do not, however, look through the same glasses when prognosticating the future, however. Core to housing and residential lending are interest rates that remained below 2.9 percent once again this week according to …Read more
Axioms are truths. If there is ever one complete truth it is that not everyone sees the future equally, nor do they consistently perceive the present. Proof in the statement takes only a glance at the latest forecast for residential interest rates from Fannie Mae and the MBA (F&M). As shown in the table, not …Read more
Existing home sales slipped 0.9 percent in May 2021 compared to April based on the Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) according to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). Actual closings in May 2021 (not seasonally adjusted) were up 2.9 percent vs April. Given the plunge in sales from April to June in 2020 due to …Read more
In the dark and clouds, airplane pilots need to know where they are heading. Fortunately flight instruments lead the way. The same is true in residential markets with monthly updated forecasts by Fannie Mae and the MBA so market professionals do not have to fly blind across the economic landscape. Each month Fannie Mae and …Read more
A favorite economist term is, “Forecasting is easy, except the future.” As an economist, I concur, but forecasting is what economists do for a living. My favorite statement, however, is, “If I agree with your assumptions, then I agree with your conclusions.” That line shows the dilemma in forecasting housing sales and residential lending volumes …Read more
In the list of uncertainties ranging from new tax rates and laws to the yet-to-be-known stimulus that will be passed by congress, add to that where home sales, median prices and lending volumes are heading. Once again, Fannie Mae and the MBA agreed to disagree in their respective monthly forecasts in January 2021. Existing Home …Read more
December 2020 monthly forecasts from Fannie Mae and the MBA show they continue to disagree on where home sales and residential lending volumes are trending for 2021. The divergence is a function of differing expectations regarding interest rates. Interest Rates Interest rates have a profound and material impact on housing affordability. The U.S. hit an …Read more
Housing today has the greatest intrinsic and price values in our lifetimes as we spend more time than ever before at home. Median home prices rose a phenomenal 14.5 percent to $310,800 in the 12-months ending November 2020 according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), with year-over-year sales of existing properties up 25.8 percent. …Read more
The surge in existing home sales continued, up 25.8 percent in November 2020 versus one-year ago on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) to 6.69 million as reported by the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). Though down 2.5 percent from the October SAAR, much of that is due to the decline in inventory of homes …Read more
Existing home sales accelerated through October 2020, with closings hitting 6.85 million dwellings on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). This was the greatest level posted since March 2006 as reported by the National association of Realtors® (NAR). On a SAAR, sales were up a gigantic 26.6 percent compared to one year ago and up …Read more