A favorite economist term is, “Forecasting is easy, except the future.” As an economist, I concur, but forecasting is what economists do for a living. My favorite statement, however, is, “If I agree with your assumptions, then I agree with your conclusions.” That line shows the dilemma in forecasting housing sales and residential lending volumes …Read more
In the list of uncertainties ranging from new tax rates and laws to the yet-to-be-known stimulus that will be passed by congress, add to that where home sales, median prices and lending volumes are heading. Once again, Fannie Mae and the MBA agreed to disagree in their respective monthly forecasts in January 2021. Existing Home …Read more
December 2020 monthly forecasts from Fannie Mae and the MBA show they continue to disagree on where home sales and residential lending volumes are trending for 2021. The divergence is a function of differing expectations regarding interest rates. Interest Rates Interest rates have a profound and material impact on housing affordability. The U.S. hit an …Read more
Housing today has the greatest intrinsic and price values in our lifetimes as we spend more time than ever before at home. Median home prices rose a phenomenal 14.5 percent to $310,800 in the 12-months ending November 2020 according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), with year-over-year sales of existing properties up 25.8 percent. …Read more
The surge in existing home sales continued, up 25.8 percent in November 2020 versus one-year ago on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) to 6.69 million as reported by the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). Though down 2.5 percent from the October SAAR, much of that is due to the decline in inventory of homes …Read more
Existing home sales accelerated through October 2020, with closings hitting 6.85 million dwellings on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). This was the greatest level posted since March 2006 as reported by the National association of Realtors® (NAR). On a SAAR, sales were up a gigantic 26.6 percent compared to one year ago and up …Read more
The latest monthly forecasts from Fannie Mae and the MBA show that the only thing the two agree on is not to agree in 2021 for either interest rates or existing home sales. Each provides a monthly prognosis on the residential housing sector including homes sales, prices, interest rates and lending. Interest Rates Interest rates …Read more
Existing home sales exploded up a massive 20.9 percent to 6.54 million in September 2020 based on seasonally adjusted annualized sales (SAAR) vs one year ago as reported by the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). This was the greatest rate of sales seen since May 2006 on a SAAR. Raw unadjusted sales rocketed up 24.7 …Read more
The increased amount of time we are spending at home makes the residence more intrinsically valuable than at any time in people’s lives today. Coupled with record-low interest rates, new and existing home sales and refinance lending volumes continue to grow – with total residential lending now forecast by Fannie Mae to hit a record …Read more
Talk to almost any homebuyer today and ask the top hurdles facing them, it is all but guaranteed that affordability hits at or near top of their list of challenges. A strong headwind for homebuyers in the past 12-months was the 11.4 percent jump in the median sales price of existing homes when comparing August …Read more